Isi Palazón
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Isi Palazón's performance-implied value at EUR 2.3M-6.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.1M-2.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.79x the positional average in the league (2263 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 6
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 81.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.9M vs market €2.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -58% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2263 (66% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.24
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.42
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 82 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1518
- Opponent strength
- 1511
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €712k – €2.1M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+78 Elo); relative output down 32% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -48% (IQR -68% to +5%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | SS | 31 | 2263 | 66% | 3 | 3 | 0.24 | 0.42 | 1511 | 1518 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | SS | 35 | 2166 | 63% | 4 | 4 | 0.33 | 0.57 | 1523 | 1440 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | RW | 37 | 2820 | 82% | 4 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.31 | 1491 | 1401 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | RW | 37 | 2991 | 87% | 9 | 5 | 0.42 | 0.53 | 1512 | 1398 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | RW | 34 | 2297 | 67% | 2 | 4 | 0.24 | 0.39 | 1522 | 1389 | 1.05 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 4 | 226 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 52 | 0 | 1 | 1286 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 3 | 61 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 124 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 3 | 111 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 6 | 368 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florian Sotoca Ligue 1 · 2022 | 32 | €2.5M | €3.0M | rose |
| Joaquín Laliga · 2013 | 32 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Wout Weghorst Bundesliga · 2024 | 32 | €6.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Daniel Caligiuri Bundesliga · 2017 | 29 | €5.0M | €6.5M | rose |
| Raffael Bundesliga · 2018 | 33 | €4.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Kévin Monnet-Paquet Ligue 1 · 2017 | 29 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Alan Kasaev Premier Liga · 2016 | 30 | €3.8M | €300k | fell |
| Karim Onisiwo Bundesliga · 2021 | 29 | €3.5M | €3.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jan 2020 | Ponferradina | Rayo Vallecano | €600k | €700k |
| 18 Aug 2017 | Real Murcia | Ponferradina | Free / loan | €200k |
| 18 Dec 2014 | Murcia Imperial | Real Murcia | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jun 2014 | FC Villarreal C | Murcia Imperial | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2014 | Villarreal U19 | FC Villarreal C | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Villarreal Yth. | Villarreal U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jun 2011 | R.Madrid Yth. | Villarreal Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jun 2010 | CD Cieza | R.Madrid Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.