Oleksandr Demchenko
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Oleksandr Demchenko's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.29x the positional average in the league (1310 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 79
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 17.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €155k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -33% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1310 (49% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.34
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.28
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 18 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1200
- Opponent strength
- 1192
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €153k – €442k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 25 pts; role change DM -> CM; relative output up 238% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -45% (IQR -62% to -27%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1310 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 37 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–128%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 86%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kolos Kovalivka | Premier Liga | CM | 21 | 1310 | 49% | 1 | 4 | 0.34 | 0.28 | 1192 | 1200 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | Kolos Kovalivka | Premier Liga | DM | 27 | 1981 | 73% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1198 | 1186 | 0.28 |
| 2023/24 | Kolos Kovalivka | Premier Liga | DM | 28 | 2150 | 80% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 1269 | 1143 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Chornomorets Odesa | Premier Liga | DM | 13 | 1043 | 39% | 3 | 3 | 0.52 | 0.35 | 1304 | 1188 | 0.38 |
| 2022/23 | FC Oleksandriya | Premier Liga | DM | 13 | 1026 | 38% | 1 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.12 | 1275 | 1284 | 0.38 |
| 2021/22 | FC Oleksandriya | Premier Liga | DM | 14 | 764 | 47% | 0 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 1300 | 1297 | 0.45 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | Kolos Kovalivka | 1 | 56 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | Kolos Kovalivka | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Ukrainian Cup | Kolos Kovalivka | 1 | 49 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Oleksandriya | 2 | 180 | 1 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pavlo Orikhovskyi Premier Liga · 2024 | 28 | €500k | €400k | fell |
| Juan Muñiz Super League 1 · 2021 | 29 | €450k | €450k | flat |
| Andriy Batsula Premier Liga · 2024 | 32 | €300k | €125k | fell |
| Kyrylo Kovalets Premier Liga · 2024 | 31 | €500k | €150k | fell |
| Mark O'Hara Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 29 | €700k | €500k | fell |
| Vladyslav Kalitvintsev Premier Liga · 2023 | 30 | €800k | €400k | fell |
| Fernando Boldrin Super Lig · 2021 | 32 | €1.0M | €200k | fell |
| Oleg Ilyin Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €500k | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Chornomorets | Kolos Kovalivka | Free / loan | €600k |
| 21 Feb 2023 | FC Oleksandriya | Chornomorets | Free / loan | €500k |
| 6 Jul 2021 | Kremin | FC Oleksandriya | Free / loan | €75k |
| 18 Feb 2021 | Nyva Ternopil | Kremin | Free / loan | €50k |
| 25 Aug 2020 | Nyva Vinnytsya | Nyva Ternopil | Unknown | €25k |
| 16 Sept 2019 | Metalist 1925 | Nyva Vinnytsya | Free / loan | €25k |
| 23 Jul 2019 | Nyva Vinnytsya | Metalist 1925 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 27 Feb 2019 | ASD Portuense | Nyva Vinnytsya | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2017 | Abano | ASD Portuense | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2016 | FC Vinnytsya | Abano | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2015 | Without Club | FC Vinnytsya | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Illichivets U19 | Without Club | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2013 | UFK Lviv | Illichivets U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.