Dan Agyei
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Dan Agyei's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.72x the positional average in the league (2131 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 81
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 21.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €452k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -31% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2131 (70% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.21
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.28
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 22 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1188
- Opponent strength
- 1260
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €473k – €1.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -50% to -19%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 79%–133%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 58%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kocaelispor | Super Lig | RW | 31 | 2131 | 70% | 5 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.28 | 1260 | 1188 | 0.40 |
| 2016/17 | Burnley FC | Premier League | ST | 3 | 23 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.86 | 1689 | 1411 | 1.07 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergiy Bolbat Premier Liga · 2023 | 30 | €800k | €400k | fell |
| Martín Rodríguez Super Lig · 2022 | 28 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Modou Barrow Super Lig · 2020 | 28 | €1.6M | €1.2M | fell |
| Nouha Dicko Super League 1 · 2023 | 31 | €600k | €500k | flat |
| Sam Larsson Super Lig · 2024 | 31 | €1.5M | €600k | fell |
| Ömer Ali Şahiner Super Lig · 2020 | 28 | €1.3M | €1.0M | fell |
| Ricardo Gomes Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €1.6M | €5.0M | rose |
| Andreas Avraam Super League 1 · 2017 | 30 | €500k | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Leyton Orient | Kocaelispor | Free / loan | €375k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Crewe Alexandra | Leyton Orient | Free / loan | €250k |
| 28 Jan 2022 | Oxford United | Crewe Alexandra | Unknown | €100k |
| 10 Aug 2019 | FC Burnley U23 | Oxford United | Unknown | €100k |
| 31 May 2018 | Blackpool | FC Burnley U23 | Free / loan | €100k |
| 18 Jan 2018 | FC Burnley U23 | Blackpool | Free / loan | €100k |
| 6 Jan 2018 | Walsall | FC Burnley U23 | Free / loan | €100k |
| 31 Aug 2017 | FC Burnley U23 | Walsall | Free / loan | €75k |
| 2 Jan 2017 | Coventry | FC Burnley U23 | Free / loan | €75k |
| 18 Aug 2016 | FC Burnley U23 | Coventry | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 29 Jul 2015 | Wimbledon U18 | Burnley U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.