Alexandru Mățan
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Alexandru Mățan's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-2.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-1.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.10x the positional average in the league (1873 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 83
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 12.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €955k vs market €1.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1873 (80% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.29
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.45
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 12 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1182
- Opponent strength
- 1241
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €824k – €1.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -19% (IQR -32% to -11%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 14 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–189%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 64%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Panetolikos Agrinio | Super League 1 | AM | 25 | 1873 | 80% | 3 | 3 | 0.29 | 0.44 | 1241 | 1182 | 0.43 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Panetolikos Agrinio | 6 | 398 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haris Hajradinovic Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €3.2M | €2.5M | fell |
| Hamidou Traore Super Lig · 2022 | 26 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Ali Crawford Scottish Premiership · 2017 | 26 | €800k | €700k | flat |
| Ryan Strain Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 26 | €650k | €600k | flat |
| Davy van den Berg Eredivisie · 2024 | 24 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Martín Tonso Super League 1 · 2017 | 28 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Lucas Vera Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Maxime D'Arpino Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 26 | €2.5M | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Aug 2025 | Dibba Al-Hisn | Panetolikos | Free / loan | €2.8M |
| 21 Feb 2025 | Without Club | Dibba Al-Hisn | Unknown | €4.0M |
| 1 Jan 2025 | Columbus | Without Club | Unknown | €4.0M |
| 31 Dec 2022 | FC Rapid 1923 | Columbus | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 9 Aug 2022 | Columbus | FC Rapid 1923 | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 8 Mar 2021 | FC Viitorul | Columbus | €1.5M | €850k |
| 10 Aug 2020 | FC Voluntari | FC Viitorul | Free / loan | €550k |
| 3 Sept 2019 | FC Viitorul | FC Voluntari | Free / loan | €450k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | FC Viitorul U19 | FC Viitorul | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Academia Hagi | FC Viitorul U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Jiul P. U19 | Academia Hagi | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.