Andreas Hanche-Olsen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Andreas Hanche-Olsen's performance-implied value at EUR 1.9M-6.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.5M-3.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-2.9M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 66.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.6M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -49% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 850 (28% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 66 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1485
- Opponent strength
- 1452
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €2.9M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 75% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -41% to -15%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 850 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | CB | 13 | 850 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1452 | 1485 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | CB | 22 | 1279 | 42% | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 1534 | 1515 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | CB | 15 | 994 | 32% | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 1490 | 1489 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | CB | 17 | 1498 | 49% | 1 | 3 | 0.24 | 0.16 | 1537 | 1496 | 1.04 |
| 2022/23 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 8 | 388 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1311 | 1451 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 33 | 2806 | 92% | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 1335 | 1420 | 0.49 |
| 2020/21 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 25 | 2187 | 71% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 1375 | 1390 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 116 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1327 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Volkswagen Supercup | KAA Gent | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1512 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | KAA Gent | 2 | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1412 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | KAA Gent | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1388 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | KAA Gent | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1503 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yuto Nagatomo Serie A · 2017 | 31 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Ulisses Garcia Ligue 1 · 2024 | 28 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Jeremy Toljan Serie A · 2022 | 28 | €5.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Leonel Vangioni Serie A · 2017 | 30 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Sol Bamba Super Lig · 2014 | 29 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Mergim Mavraj Bundesliga · 2016 | 30 | €1.8M | €500k | fell |
| Leon Balogun Bundesliga · 2017 | 29 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Mexer Ligue 1 · 2018 | 30 | €4.0M | €3.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jan 2023 | KAA Gent | Mainz | €2.5M | €3.5M |
| 5 Oct 2020 | Stabæk | KAA Gent | €800k | €600k |
| 1 Jan 2016 | Stabæk Yth. | Stabæk | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.