Jeremy Toljan
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jeremy Toljan's performance-implied value at EUR 1.3M-4.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 76
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 71.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €678k vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -35% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3173 (93% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.19
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 71 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1420
- Opponent strength
- 1492
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €657k – €1.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -62% to -39%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Levante UD | Laliga | RB | 37 | 3173 | 93% | 1 | 4 | 0.14 | 0.19 | 1492 | 1420 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | US Sassuolo | Serie A | RB | 25 | 2085 | 61% | 0 | 6 | 0.26 | 0.26 | 1485 | 1330 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | US Sassuolo | Serie A | RB | 31 | 2672 | 78% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 1469 | 1420 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | US Sassuolo | Serie A | RB | 20 | 1399 | 41% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1427 | 1464 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | US Sassuolo | Serie A | RB | 26 | 1493 | 44% | 0 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 1450 | 1502 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | US Sassuolo | Serie A | RB | 29 | 2187 | 64% | 1 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 1414 | 1428 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 8 | 586 | 20% | 0 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.08 | 1311 | 1525 | 0.44 |
| 2017/18 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | LB | 16 | 1208 | 39% | 1 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 1485 | 1592 | 1.04 |
| 2017/18 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | RM | 2 | 180 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 1530 | 1579 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | RM | 20 | 1313 | 43% | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.23 | 1544 | 1592 | 1.06 |
| 2015/16 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | LB | 18 | 1487 | 49% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 1503 | 1428 | 1.02 |
| 2014/15 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | LB | 6 | 380 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1588 | 1456 | 1.03 |
| 2013/14 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga | LB | 10 | 580 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1551 | 1476 | 1.03 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Levante UD | 2 | 33 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | US Sassuolo | 2 | 165 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Italy Cup | US Sassuolo | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Celtic FC | 2 | 127 | 0 | 0 | 1617 |
| 2018/19 | Scottish Fa Cup | Celtic FC | 2 | 95 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 271 | 0 | 0 | 1753 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | 1590 |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 88 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1676 |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 55 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 151 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Dfb Pokal | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Matip Bundesliga · 2016 | 31 | €1.3M | €800k | fell |
| Cem Can Super Lig · 2013 | 32 | €1.5M | €300k | fell |
| Iván Balliu Laliga · 2022 | 30 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Alfonso Espino Laliga · 2023 | 31 | €3.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Danilo Serie A · 2017 | 33 | €2.0M | €800k | fell |
| Jeffrey Gouweleeuw Bundesliga · 2024 | 33 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Makoto Hasebe Bundesliga · 2016 | 32 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Yunis Abdelhamid Ligue 1 · 2020 | 33 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Jul 2025 | Sassuolo | Levante | Free / loan | €2.4M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Dortmund | Sassuolo | €3.5M | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Sassuolo | Dortmund | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 11 Jul 2019 | Dortmund | Sassuolo | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Celtic | Dortmund | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 31 Jan 2019 | Dortmund | Celtic | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 30 Aug 2017 | Hoffenheim | Dortmund | €7.0M | €3.5M |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Hoffenheim II | Hoffenheim | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Hoffenheim U19 | Hoffenheim II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Stuttgart U17 | Hoffenheim U19 | €500k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | S. Kickers Yth. | Stuttgart U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Steinhald. Yth. | S. Kickers Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2005 | Sommerrain Yth. | Steinhald. Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.