Ivan Oleynikov
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ivan Oleynikov's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-1.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.45x the positional average in the league (1506 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 82
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 26.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €786k vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1506 (56% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.48
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.59
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 27 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1262
- Opponent strength
- 1339
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €761k – €2.5M
Trajectory drivers: role change AM -> LW.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -10% (IQR -57% to +69%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1506 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 50%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | LW | 25 | 1506 | 56% | 5 | 3 | 0.48 | 0.59 | 1339 | 1262 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | AM | 25 | 1899 | 70% | 6 | 6 | 0.57 | 0.58 | 1304 | 1257 | 0.55 |
| 2024/25 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | ST | 1 | 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.66 | 1394 | 1248 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | RW | 27 | 1730 | 64% | 1 | 5 | 0.31 | 0.36 | 1314 | 1273 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | AM | 24 | 1449 | 54% | 2 | 7 | 0.56 | 0.42 | 1327 | 1364 | 0.53 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 8 | 489 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 4 | 140 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | RFK Akhmat Grozny | 8 | 322 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | RFK Akhmat Grozny | 7 | 523 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Russian Cup | FC Tyumen | 1 | 80 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 1 | 70 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Pisarskiy Premier Liga · 2023 | 27 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Roman Ezhov Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €3.0M | €800k | fell |
| Abdou Traoré Super Lig · 2017 | 29 | €3.0M | €650k | fell |
| Aleksandr Troshechkin Premier Liga · 2022 | 26 | €1.2M | €700k | fell |
| Gianni Bruno Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 28 | €1.8M | €2.5M | rose |
| Anice Badri Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 26 | €800k | €1.2M | rose |
| Tarik Tissoudali Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 28 | €2.5M | €6.0M | rose |
| Mame Thiam Super Lig · 2020 | 28 | €1.2M | €3.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2024 | Akhmat Grozny | KS Samara | €1.0M | €1.3M |
| 2 Jul 2022 | Chaika Pes. | Akhmat Grozny | Free / loan | €450k |
| 11 Feb 2021 | Shinnik Yaroslav | Chaika Pes. | €23k | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | CSKA Moscow II | Shinnik Yaroslav | €20k | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Fakel Voronezh | CSKA Moscow II | Free / loan | €300k |
| 22 Feb 2019 | CSKA Moscow II | Fakel Voronezh | Free / loan | €225k |
| 1 Jan 2016 | CSKA U17 | CSKA Moscow II | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | CSKA Moscow II | CSKA U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 23 Apr 2015 | CSKA U17 | CSKA Moscow II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.