Vanja Drkusic

26 yrs · Centre-back · Slovenia
AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg · Premier Liga · Foot: right · Height: 186 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€5.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€2.5M – €6.4M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.9M – €9.8M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€2.6M – €7.0M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€4.5M – €7.2M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€2.5M – €6.4M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.9M – €9.8M
Projected value (24 months)€2.6M – €7.0M
Dashed line: current market value (€5.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Vanja Drkusic's performance-implied value at EUR 1.9M-9.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.5M-6.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.6M-7.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 37

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average65.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral26.7 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €4.4M vs market €5.0M
Expected appreciationLow-20% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.56
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €5.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1622 (60% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.02
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
65 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.56 (rank 10)
Team strength (Elo)
1597
Opponent strength
1355
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€2.6M – €7.0M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -22% (IQR -41% to +15%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1622 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
25 (DEF)
Relative output kept
48%–200%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
72%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26AO FK Zenit Sankt-PeterburgPremier LigaCB28162260%000.000.02135515970.56
2024/25AO FK Zenit Sankt-PeterburgPremier LigaCB744516%000.000.03126115580.55
2023/24FK SochiPremier LigaCB23181167%200.100.09133012220.49
2022/23FK SochiPremier LigaCB26230285%120.120.08130913100.53
2021/22FK SochiPremier LigaCB1188633%000.000.03134014410.52

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Russian CupAO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg534400—
2024/25Russian CupAO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg327000—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueRed Star Belgrade2179001627
2023/24Russian CupFK Sochi17400—
2022/23Russian CupFK Sochi528710—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Koki Machida
Jupiler Pro League · 2024
27€10.0M€6.0Mfell
Douglas
Premier Liga · 2015
25€5.5M€5.0Mflat
Avraam Papadopoulos
Super League 1 · 2014
30€3.2M€600kfell
Nuraly Alip
Premier Liga · 2024
25€3.0M€2.0Mfell
Sergiy Kryvtsov
Premier Liga · 2019
28€4.0M€4.0Mflat
Ivan Ordets
Premier Liga · 2016
24€2.0M€3.5Mrose
Panagiotis Retsos
Super League 1 · 2024
26€2.5M€7.0Mrose
Filip Helander
Scottish Premiership · 2021
28€3.5M€2.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jan 2025Red StarZenit S-PbFree / loan€4.0M
16 Aug 2024Zenit S-PbRed StarFree / loan€3.5M
13 Aug 2024FK SochiZenit S-Pb€4.0M€3.5M
24 Jan 2022NK BravoFK Sochi€120k€300k
30 Jan 2020RendeNK BravoFree / loanData unavailable
31 Aug 2019HeerenveenRendeFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2019Heerenveen U21HeerenveenUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2017Heerenveen U19Heerenveen U21UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2016Heerenveen U17Heerenveen U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jan 2016NK Krsko U19Heerenveen U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2014NK Krsko U17NK Krsko U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jan 2014NK Krka U17NK Krsko U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Vanja Drkusic · MoneyballAI