
Vanja Drkusic
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Vanja Drkusic's performance-implied value at EUR 1.9M-9.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.5M-6.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.6M-7.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 37
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 65.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €4.4M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1622 (60% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.02
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 65 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1597
- Opponent strength
- 1355
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.6M – €7.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -22% (IQR -41% to +15%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1622 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | CB | 28 | 1622 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1355 | 1597 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | CB | 7 | 445 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1261 | 1558 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FK Sochi | Premier Liga | CB | 23 | 1811 | 67% | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 1330 | 1222 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FK Sochi | Premier Liga | CB | 26 | 2302 | 85% | 1 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 1309 | 1310 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | FK Sochi | Premier Liga | CB | 11 | 886 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1340 | 1441 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 5 | 344 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Red Star Belgrade | 2 | 179 | 0 | 0 | 1627 |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Sochi | 1 | 74 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FK Sochi | 5 | 287 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koki Machida Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 27 | €10.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Douglas Premier Liga · 2015 | 25 | €5.5M | €5.0M | flat |
| Avraam Papadopoulos Super League 1 · 2014 | 30 | €3.2M | €600k | fell |
| Nuraly Alip Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Sergiy Kryvtsov Premier Liga · 2019 | 28 | €4.0M | €4.0M | flat |
| Ivan Ordets Premier Liga · 2016 | 24 | €2.0M | €3.5M | rose |
| Panagiotis Retsos Super League 1 · 2024 | 26 | €2.5M | €7.0M | rose |
| Filip Helander Scottish Premiership · 2021 | 28 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jan 2025 | Red Star | Zenit S-Pb | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 16 Aug 2024 | Zenit S-Pb | Red Star | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 13 Aug 2024 | FK Sochi | Zenit S-Pb | €4.0M | €3.5M |
| 24 Jan 2022 | NK Bravo | FK Sochi | €120k | €300k |
| 30 Jan 2020 | Rende | NK Bravo | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 31 Aug 2019 | Heerenveen | Rende | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Heerenveen U21 | Heerenveen | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Heerenveen U19 | Heerenveen U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Heerenveen U17 | Heerenveen U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2016 | NK Krsko U19 | Heerenveen U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | NK Krsko U17 | NK Krsko U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2014 | NK Krka U17 | NK Krsko U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.