Nuraly Alip
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nuraly Alip's performance-implied value at EUR 2.0M-8.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-3.8M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 55.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.6M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 690 (26% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.13
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 56 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1597
- Opponent strength
- 1307
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €924k – €3.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -47% (IQR -57% to -33%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 690 league minutes last season.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | CB | 16 | 690 | 26% | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 1307 | 1597 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | CB | 19 | 978 | 36% | 1 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.07 | 1284 | 1558 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | CB | 25 | 1660 | 61% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1327 | 1491 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | CB | 8 | 541 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1283 | 1582 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | CB | 10 | 522 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1323 | 1530 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 11 | 867 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 9 | 720 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Super Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 1 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1405 |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 12 | 932 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 4 | 284 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Super Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1359 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Kairat Almaty | 4 | 360 | 1 | 0 | 1486 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Kairat Almaty | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1282 |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Kairat Almaty | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1282 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jozo Simunovic Scottish Premiership · 2020 | 26 | €2.5M | €500k | fell |
| Jorge Sánchez Liga Portugal · 2024 | 27 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Ewerton Liga Portugal · 2016 | 27 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Zé Pedro Liga Portugal · 2024 | 27 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Ivan Tomecak Premier Liga · 2016 | 27 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Anastasios Papazoglou Super League 1 · 2014 | 26 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
| Saulo Decarli Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 26 | €1.8M | €800k | fell |
| Abdoulaye Ba Super Lig · 2016 | 25 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2023 | Kairat Almaty | Zenit S-Pb | €2.0M | €1.2M |
| 31 Dec 2022 | Zenit S-Pb | Kairat Almaty | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 16 Feb 2022 | Kairat Almaty | Zenit S-Pb | Free / loan | €1.7M |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Kairat II | Kairat Almaty | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Kairat U19 | Kairat II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.