
Panagiotis Retsos
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Panagiotis Retsos's performance-implied value at EUR 2.2M-8.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.0M-8.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.8M-7.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 50
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 72th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €5.1M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -27% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1730 (74% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 72 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1550
- Opponent strength
- 1226
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.8M – €7.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 31 pts; league level up (+40 Elo); relative output down 32% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -7% (IQR -27% to +5%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1730 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 55%–230%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | CB | 20 | 1730 | 74% | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 1226 | 1550 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | CB | 14 | 1005 | 43% | 1 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.09 | 1285 | 1525 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | CB | 20 | 1466 | 63% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1237 | 1490 | 0.42 |
| 2022/23 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | CB | 6 | 352 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1156 | 1446 | 0.37 |
| 2022/23 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | CB | 2 | 121 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1456 | 1357 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | CB | 5 | 52 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1531 | 1441 | 0.89 |
| 2021/22 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | CB | 4 | 28 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1658 | 1639 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | AS Saint-Étienne | Ligue 1 | CB | 4 | 273 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1541 | 1371 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | CB | 3 | 114 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1441 | 1654 | 1.06 |
| 2017/18 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | CB | 24 | 1714 | 56% | 1 | 3 | 0.21 | 0.12 | 1491 | 1569 | 1.04 |
| 2017/18 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | CB | 2 | 180 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1230 | 1484 | 0.48 |
| 2016/17 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | CB | 18 | 1333 | 49% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1279 | 1520 | 0.44 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 9 | 806 | 0 | 0 | 1662 |
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 2 | 113 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 9 | 673 | 0 | 0 | 1511 |
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 5 | 335 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1477 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 4 | 307 | 1 | 0 | 1412 |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 4 | 233 | 0 | 0 | 1464 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 3 | 103 | 0 | 0 | 1413 |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2 | 99 | 0 | 0 | 1526 |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1 | 59 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Sheffield United | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1482 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1444 |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 4 | 187 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 7 | 630 | 0 | 0 | 1494 |
| 2016/17 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 8 | 629 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1330 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dmitriy Chistyakov Premier Liga · 2022 | 28 | €4.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Greg Taylor Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 26 | €6.5M | €6.0M | flat |
| Nick Viergever Eredivisie · 2017 | 28 | €4.0M | €4.0M | flat |
| Alistair Johnston Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 26 | €8.5M | €8.0M | flat |
| Sergiy Kryvtsov Premier Liga · 2020 | 29 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Clinton Mata Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 28 | €6.5M | €8.0M | rose |
| Domagoj Vida Premier Liga · 2015 | 26 | €7.0M | €9.0M | rose |
| Ezequiel Schelotto Liga Portugal · 2017 | 28 | €4.5M | €3.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Hellas Verona | Olympiacos | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Olympiacos | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 31 Aug 2022 | Hellas Verona | Olympiacos | Free / loan | €2.8M |
| 25 Jan 2022 | Leverkusen | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Saint-Étienne | Leverkusen | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 5 Oct 2020 | Leverkusen | Saint-Étienne | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Sheff Utd | Leverkusen | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 31 Jan 2020 | Leverkusen | Sheff Utd | Free / loan | €9.0M |
| 31 Aug 2017 | Olympiacos | Leverkusen | €17.5M | €5.0M |
| 9 Sept 2015 | Olympiacos U20 | Olympiacos | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.