
Mads Bech Sørensen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mads Bech Sørensen's performance-implied value at EUR 2.1M-7.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.2M-6.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.4M-7.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 94
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 63.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €3.0M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1725 (87% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.21
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 64 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1562
- Opponent strength
- 1246
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.4M – €7.6M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+164 Elo); league level up (+45 Elo); relative output up 83% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -26% to -2%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1725 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 24 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 60%–139%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 71%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | CB | 20 | 1725 | 87% | 2 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.10 | 1246 | 1562 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | CB | 21 | 1829 | 92% | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 1287 | 1399 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | CB | 14 | 1178 | 59% | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 1287 | 1449 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | CB | 11 | 907 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1327 | 1146 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | Brentford FC | Premier League | CB | 4 | 19 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1597 | 1623 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Brentford FC | Premier League | CB | 11 | 833 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1580 | 1483 | 1.17 |
| 2017/18 | AC Horsens | Superliga | LM | 3 | 216 | 9% | 1 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.28 | 1282 | 1258 | 0.47 |
| 2016/17 | AC Horsens | Superliga | CB | 3 | 40 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1229 | 1194 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | FC Midtjylland | 10 | 930 | 1 | 1 | 1494 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 6 | 545 | 1 | 1 | 1314 |
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | FC Midtjylland | 10 | 855 | 0 | 1 | 1529 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1346 |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 3 | 239 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Brentford FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Brentford FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Oddset Pokalen | AC Horsens | 3 | 270 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Diks Superliga · 2024 | 28 | €4.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Niklas Moisander Eredivisie · 2013 | 28 | €6.5M | €5.0M | fell |
| James Tavernier Scottish Premiership · 2020 | 29 | €4.8M | €10.0M | rose |
| Christopher Jullien Scottish Premiership · 2020 | 27 | €5.2M | €4.5M | flat |
| Jonas Svensson Eredivisie · 2020 | 27 | €4.0M | €3.6M | flat |
| Emilio Izaguirre Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 28 | €4.3M | €3.0M | fell |
| Héctor Moreno Eredivisie · 2017 | 29 | €8.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Simon Deli Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 29 | €5.5M | €1.8M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2023 | Brentford | Midtjylland | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | FC Groningen | Brentford | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 19 Jan 2023 | Brentford | FC Groningen | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Nice | Brentford | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 1 Sept 2022 | Brentford | Nice | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 31 May 2020 | AFC Wimbledon | Brentford | Free / loan | €325k |
| 9 Jan 2020 | Brentford | AFC Wimbledon | Free / loan | €350k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Brentford B | Brentford | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Aug 2017 | AC Horsens | Brentford B | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | AC Horsens U19 | AC Horsens | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.