Mads Bech Sørensen

27 yrs · Centre-back (also LM) · Denmark
FC Midtjylland · Superliga · Foot: left · Height: 189 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€6.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€2.2M – €6.5M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€2.1M – €7.8M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€3.4M – €7.6M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€4.4M – €5.6M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€2.2M – €6.5M
Model value (performance-implied)€2.1M – €7.8M
Projected value (24 months)€3.4M – €7.6M
Dashed line: current market value (€6.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Mads Bech Sørensen's performance-implied value at EUR 2.1M-7.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.2M-6.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.4M-7.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 94

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average63.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral27.5 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €3.0M vs market €6.0M
Expected appreciationLow-10% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.47
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €6.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1725 (87% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.21
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.10
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
64 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.47 (rank 12)
Team strength (Elo)
1562
Opponent strength
1246
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€3.4M – €7.6M

Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+164 Elo); league level up (+45 Elo); relative output up 83% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -26% to -2%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1725 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
24 (DEF)
Relative output kept
60%–139%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
71%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FC MidtjyllandSuperligaCB20172587%220.210.10124615620.47
2024/25FC MidtjyllandSuperligaCB21182992%110.100.05128713990.38
2023/24FC MidtjyllandSuperligaCB14117859%100.080.07128714490.48
2022/23FC GroningenEredivisieCB1190730%000.000.04132711460.58
2022/23Brentford FCPremier LeagueCB4191%000.000.09159716231.23
2021/22Brentford FCPremier LeagueCB1183324%000.000.04158014831.17
2017/18AC HorsensSuperligaLM32169%100.420.28128212580.47
2016/17AC HorsensSuperligaCB3402%000.000.07122911940.48

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa LeagueFC Midtjylland10930111494
2025/26Uefa Europa League QualifyingFC Midtjylland6545111314
2025/26Oddset PokalenFC Midtjylland545000—
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueFC Midtjylland10855011529
2024/25Uefa Champions League QualifyingFC Midtjylland6540001346
2024/25Oddset PokalenFC Midtjylland218000—
2023/24Oddset PokalenFC Midtjylland323901—
2022/23Fa CupBrentford FC19000—
2021/22Fa CupBrentford FC218000—
2016/17Oddset PokalenAC Horsens327001—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Kevin Diks
Superliga · 2024
28€4.0M€5.0Mrose
Niklas Moisander
Eredivisie · 2013
28€6.5M€5.0Mfell
James Tavernier
Scottish Premiership · 2020
29€4.8M€10.0Mrose
Christopher Jullien
Scottish Premiership · 2020
27€5.2M€4.5Mflat
Jonas Svensson
Eredivisie · 2020
27€4.0M€3.6Mflat
Emilio Izaguirre
Scottish Premiership · 2014
28€4.3M€3.0Mfell
Héctor Moreno
Eredivisie · 2017
29€8.0M€6.0Mfell
Simon Deli
Jupiler Pro League · 2020
29€5.5M€1.8Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Sept 2023BrentfordMidtjyllandFree / loan€2.5M
30 Jun 2023FC GroningenBrentfordFree / loan€2.5M
19 Jan 2023BrentfordFC GroningenFree / loan€4.0M
1 Jan 2023NiceBrentfordFree / loan€4.0M
1 Sept 2022BrentfordNiceFree / loan€5.0M
31 May 2020AFC WimbledonBrentfordFree / loan€325k
9 Jan 2020BrentfordAFC WimbledonFree / loan€350k
1 Jul 2018Brentford BBrentfordUnknown€150k
1 Aug 2017AC HorsensBrentford BUnknown€150k
1 Jul 2015AC Horsens U19AC HorsensUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.