Oliver Edvardsen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Oliver Edvardsen's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.1M-3.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-3.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.65x the positional average in the league (635 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 27.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.9M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -35% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 635 (21% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.28
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.26
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 28 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1405
- Opponent strength
- 1324
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €3.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 18 pts; changed club; role change LW -> RW; relative output down 61% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -31% (IQR -41% to -13%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 635 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 73%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 61%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | RW | 18 | 635 | 21% | 0 | 2 | 0.28 | 0.25 | 1324 | 1405 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Go Ahead Eagles | Eredivisie | LW | 14 | 892 | 29% | 8 | 4 | 1.21 | 0.82 | 1266 | 1297 | 0.50 |
| 2024/25 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | LW | 11 | 282 | 9% | 4 | 0 | 1.28 | 0.35 | 1246 | 1505 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | Go Ahead Eagles | Eredivisie | LW | 33 | 2370 | 77% | 7 | 2 | 0.34 | 0.41 | 1362 | 1254 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Go Ahead Eagles | Eredivisie | LW | 28 | 2046 | 67% | 7 | 1 | 0.35 | 0.54 | 1380 | 1246 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Ajax Amsterdam | 4 | 162 | 1 | 0 | 1660 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Ajax Amsterdam | 4 | 252 | 0 | 1 | 1551 |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | Go Ahead Eagles | 2 | 140 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | Go Ahead Eagles | 2 | 99 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | Go Ahead Eagles | 2 | 66 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taxiarchis Fountas Super Lig · 2024 | 29 | €3.7M | €1.8M | fell |
| Florin Andone Super Lig · 2020 | 27 | €3.2M | €1.0M | fell |
| Aitor Cantalapiedra Super League 1 · 2024 | 28 | €1.8M | €1.8M | flat |
| Robert Muric Super Lig · 2023 | 27 | €2.7M | €1.8M | fell |
| Philippe Keny Super Lig · 2024 | 25 | €1.6M | €2.5M | rose |
| Maryan Shved Premier Liga · 2023 | 26 | €1.2M | €1.0M | flat |
| Thomas Murg Super League 1 · 2022 | 28 | €2.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Rony Lopes Super League 1 · 2022 | 27 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2025 | Go Ahead Eagles | Ajax | €3.0M | €3.0M |
| 15 Jul 2022 | Stabæk | Go Ahead Eagles | €220k | €500k |
| 31 Aug 2019 | Grorud | Stabæk | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 8 Jan 2019 | Vålerenga II | Grorud | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 8 Jan 2017 | Godset Yth. | Vålerenga II | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2016 | Drøbak-Frogn | Godset Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.