Kristijan Jakic
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kristijan Jakic's performance-implied value at EUR 2.1M-6.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.6M-6.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.8M-4.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.31x the positional average in the league (1654 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 12
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 68th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €4.5M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -48% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1654 (54% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.16
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.16
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 68 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1421
- Opponent strength
- 1489
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.8M – €4.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 21 pts; relative output up 112% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -46% (IQR -59% to -34%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1654 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | DM | 26 | 1654 | 54% | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 1489 | 1421 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | DM | 31 | 2308 | 75% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 1504 | 1404 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | DM | 14 | 1055 | 34% | 2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.21 | 1508 | 1393 | 1.01 |
| 2023/24 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | DM | 4 | 198 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1424 | 1498 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | CB | 24 | 1457 | 48% | 1 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.10 | 1503 | 1541 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | DM | 26 | 1883 | 62% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1506 | 1594 | 1.05 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 4 | 256 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Eintracht Frankfurt | 2 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 1376 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 620 | 0 | 0 | 1668 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 4 | 192 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Eintracht Frankfurt | 12 | 940 | 0 | 0 | 1545 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | GNK Dinamo Zagreb | 7 | 548 | 1 | 1 | 1383 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luca Cigarini Serie A · 2016 | 30 | €5.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Pasquale Mazzocchi Serie A · 2023 | 28 | €4.8M | €2.5M | fell |
| Răzvan Marin Serie A · 2024 | 28 | €2.7M | €4.0M | rose |
| Erick Pulgar Serie A · 2021 | 27 | €9.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Lucas Castro Serie A · 2018 | 29 | €7.0M | €3.2M | fell |
| Maxi Moralez Serie A · 2015 | 28 | €5.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Luca Rigoni Serie A · 2016 | 32 | €4.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Luis Milla Laliga · 2023 | 29 | €4.0M | €3.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Frankfurt | Augsburg | €5.0M | €6.5M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Augsburg | Frankfurt | Free / loan | €6.5M |
| 19 Jan 2024 | Frankfurt | Augsburg | Free / loan | €5.5M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Dinamo Zagreb | Frankfurt | €3.5M | €9.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Frankfurt | Dinamo Zagreb | Free / loan | €9.0M |
| 30 Aug 2021 | Dinamo Zagreb | Frankfurt | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 11 Aug 2020 | NK Lokomotiva | Dinamo Zagreb | €1.2M | €1.2M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | NK Istra | NK Lokomotiva | Free / loan | €250k |
| 5 Feb 2018 | NK Lokomotiva | NK Istra | Free / loan | €350k |
| 5 Jul 2017 | RNK Split | NK Lokomotiva | €135k | €350k |
| 8 Jan 2016 | RNK Split U19 | RNK Split | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | RNK Split U17 | RNK Split U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 19 Aug 2013 | NK Imotski U17 | RNK Split U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | NK Imotski Jgd | NK Imotski U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.