
Răzvan Marin
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Răzvan Marin's performance-implied value at EUR 2.2M-7.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.4M-4.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-3.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.45x the positional average in the league (1667 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 39
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 72.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.3M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -47% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1667 (71% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.54
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.32
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 73 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1512
- Opponent strength
- 1228
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.4M – €3.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 30 pts; changed club; team strength up (+143 Elo); league level down (-223 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -52% to -19%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1667 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 14 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–189%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 64%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | Super League 1 | CM | 25 | 1667 | 71% | 3 | 7 | 0.54 | 0.32 | 1228 | 1512 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | CM | 33 | 1395 | 41% | 3 | 2 | 0.32 | 0.37 | 1492 | 1368 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | FC Empoli | Serie A | DM | 30 | 1818 | 53% | 0 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.17 | 1493 | 1388 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | FC Empoli | Serie A | DM | 33 | 2540 | 74% | 2 | 4 | 0.21 | 0.26 | 1467 | 1388 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | CM | 36 | 2815 | 82% | 0 | 6 | 0.19 | 0.23 | 1485 | 1310 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | CM | 37 | 2975 | 87% | 3 | 6 | 0.27 | 0.29 | 1463 | 1373 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | CM | 10 | 503 | 22% | 0 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.08 | 1329 | 1680 | 0.62 |
| 2018/19 | Standard Liège | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 28 | 2299 | 85% | 5 | 5 | 0.39 | 0.25 | 1364 | 1472 | 0.65 |
| 2017/18 | Standard Liège | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 27 | 2068 | 77% | 4 | 7 | 0.48 | 0.30 | 1372 | 1408 | 0.63 |
| 2016/17 | Standard Liège | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 9 | 531 | 20% | 0 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.16 | 1338 | 1383 | 0.62 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | 5 | 392 | 1 | 0 | 1460 |
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | 2 | 60 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 2 | 148 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | FC Empoli | 1 | 58 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | FC Empoli | 1 | 83 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 2 | 160 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Ajax Amsterdam | 4 | 116 | 0 | 0 | 1493 |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 2 | 99 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | Ajax Amsterdam | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1642 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Standard Liège | 6 | 496 | 0 | 1 | 1480 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Standard Liège | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1621 |
| 2018/19 | Volkswagen Supercup | Standard Liège | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1527 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FCV Farul Constanta | 2 | 114 | 0 | 0 | 1478 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurício Super League 1 · 2018 | 30 | €3.5M | €2.4M | fell |
| Konstantinos Fortounis Super League 1 · 2024 | 32 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Scott Arfield Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 31 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Sergiy Sydorchuk Premier Liga · 2020 | 29 | €3.5M | €5.0M | rose |
| Kris Commons Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 31 | €3.5M | €3.0M | flat |
| Salih Uçan Super Lig · 2023 | 29 | €4.7M | €2.0M | fell |
| Niclas Eliasson Super League 1 · 2024 | 29 | €4.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Miha Zajc Super Lig · 2022 | 28 | €6.0M | €2.4M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jul 2025 | Cagliari | AEK Athens | €1.7M | €3.5M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | FC Empoli | Cagliari | Free / loan | €2.7M |
| 5 Jul 2022 | Cagliari | FC Empoli | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Ajax | Cagliari | €6.9M | €15.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Cagliari | Ajax | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Ajax | Cagliari | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Standard Liège | Ajax | €12.5M | €13.5M |
| 20 Jan 2017 | FC Viitorul | Standard Liège | €4.8M | €2.0M |
| 1 Jan 2014 | FC Viitorul U19 | FC Viitorul | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Academia Hagi | FC Viitorul U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Pro Luceafărul | Academia Hagi | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.