Paulo Moreira
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Paulo Moreira's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.32x the positional average in the league (2379 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 69
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 22.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.1M vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2379 (78% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.19
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.29
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 22 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1195
- Opponent strength
- 1340
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €820k – €2.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 35 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +3% (IQR +0% to +13%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CF Estrela Amadora | Liga Portugal | CM | 29 | 2379 | 78% | 3 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.29 | 1340 | 1195 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | CF Estrela Amadora | Liga Portugal | CM | 26 | 1296 | 42% | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.25 | 1353 | 1152 | 0.51 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andreas Tatos Super League 1 · 2014 | 25 | €1.2M | €800k | fell |
| Mathieu Maertens Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 27 | €1.5M | €1.8M | rose |
| Xadas Liga Portugal · 2023 | 26 | €1.2M | €1.2M | flat |
| Tatsuhiro Sakamoto Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 27 | €1.0M | €1.8M | rose |
| Siebe Schrijvers Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 26 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Evariste Ngolok Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 26 | €900k | €1.0M | flat |
| Abdelkahar Kadri Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 24 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Erik Falkenburg Eredivisie · 2014 | 26 | €850k | €900k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Varzim | Estrela Amadora | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Felgueiras | Varzim | Free / loan | €75k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Varzim | Felgueiras | Free / loan | €75k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | BC Branco | Varzim | Free / loan | €75k |
| 30 Jan 2021 | Varzim | BC Branco | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Águeda | Varzim | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | FC Porto U19 | Águeda | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | FC Porto U17 | FC Porto U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Padroense U17 | FC Porto U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | FC Porto U15 | Padroense U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | FC Porto Youth | FC Porto U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.