Michael Folorunsho

28 yrs · Central midfielder (also AM, LM) · Italy
Cagliari Calcio · Serie A · Foot: right · Height: 190 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€5.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€2.0M – €5.1M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€2.3M – €7.2M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.8M – €4.9M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€2.9M – €5.1M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€2.0M – €5.1M
Model value (performance-implied)€2.3M – €7.2M
Projected value (24 months)€1.8M – €4.9M
Dashed line: current market value (€5.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Michael Folorunsho's performance-implied value at EUR 2.3M-7.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.0M-5.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.8M-4.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.75x the positional average in the league (2009 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 55

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average62.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable28.4 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €3.1M vs market €5.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-35% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €8.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2009 (59% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.09
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.17
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
63 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1376
Opponent strength
1507
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.8M – €4.9M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 39 pts; changed club; team strength down (-207 Elo); role change LM -> CM; relative output up 54% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -54% (IQR -60% to +9%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Cagliari CalcioSerie ACM27200959%200.090.16150713760.93
2024/25ACF FiorentinaSerie ALM1464519%000.000.10146315800.99
2024/25SSC NapoliSerie ACM6311%000.000.20156716600.99
2023/24Hellas VeronaSerie AAM34279482%510.190.32149213810.98

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Italy CupCagliari Calcio19000—
2024/25Italy CupSSC Napoli17200—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Jimmy Cabot
Ligue 1 · 2022
28€5.0M€2.5Mfell
Jordan Ferri
Ligue 1 · 2019
27€4.0M€4.0Mflat
Aaron Hunt
Bundesliga · 2016
30€3.5M€1.5Mfell
Dalbert
Serie A · 2022
29€2.5M€1.0Mfell
Nabil Bentaleb
Ligue 1 · 2022
28€3.5M€10.0Mrose
Simone Verdi
Serie A · 2020
28€13.0M€5.0Mfell
Roberto Soriano
Serie A · 2019
28€7.0M€10.0Mrose
Giannelli Imbula
Ligue 1 · 2018
26€6.0M€2.4Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2026CagliariNapoliFree / loan€5.0M
24 Jul 2025NapoliCagliariFree / loan€6.0M
30 Jun 2025FiorentinaNapoliFree / loan€6.0M
11 Jan 2025NapoliFiorentinaFree / loan€7.0M
30 Jun 2024Hellas VeronaNapoliFree / loan€8.5M
16 Aug 2023NapoliHellas VeronaFree / loan€2.5M
30 Jun 2023BariNapoliFree / loan€2.5M
26 Jul 2022NapoliBariFree / loan€1.5M
30 Jun 2022RegginaNapoliFree / loan€1.5M
31 Jan 2022NapoliRegginaFree / loan€1.8M
30 Jan 2022PordenoneNapoliFree / loan€1.8M
10 Aug 2021NapoliPordenoneFree / loan€1.5M
30 Jun 2021RegginaNapoliFree / loan€1.5M
16 Sept 2020NapoliRegginaFree / loan€250k
15 Sept 2020BariNapoliFree / loan€250k
15 Jul 2019NapoliBariFree / loan€300k
13 Jul 2019V. FrancavillaNapoli€1.0M€300k
18 Jul 2017Lazio U19V. FrancavillaUnknown€150k
1 Jul 2015Lazio U17Lazio U19UnknownData unavailable
31 Aug 2014SavioLazio U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2013Sapienza Yth.SavioFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.