
Michael Folorunsho
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Michael Folorunsho's performance-implied value at EUR 2.3M-7.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.0M-5.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.8M-4.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.75x the positional average in the league (2009 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 55
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 62.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.1M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -35% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2009 (59% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 63 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1376
- Opponent strength
- 1507
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.8M – €4.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 39 pts; changed club; team strength down (-207 Elo); role change LM -> CM; relative output up 54% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -54% (IQR -60% to +9%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | CM | 27 | 2009 | 59% | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.16 | 1507 | 1376 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | LM | 14 | 645 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1463 | 1580 | 0.99 |
| 2024/25 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | CM | 6 | 31 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 1567 | 1660 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | AM | 34 | 2794 | 82% | 5 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.32 | 1492 | 1381 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | SSC Napoli | 1 | 72 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Cabot Ligue 1 · 2022 | 28 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Jordan Ferri Ligue 1 · 2019 | 27 | €4.0M | €4.0M | flat |
| Aaron Hunt Bundesliga · 2016 | 30 | €3.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Dalbert Serie A · 2022 | 29 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Nabil Bentaleb Ligue 1 · 2022 | 28 | €3.5M | €10.0M | rose |
| Simone Verdi Serie A · 2020 | 28 | €13.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Roberto Soriano Serie A · 2019 | 28 | €7.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Giannelli Imbula Ligue 1 · 2018 | 26 | €6.0M | €2.4M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Cagliari | Napoli | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 24 Jul 2025 | Napoli | Cagliari | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Fiorentina | Napoli | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 11 Jan 2025 | Napoli | Fiorentina | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Hellas Verona | Napoli | Free / loan | €8.5M |
| 16 Aug 2023 | Napoli | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Bari | Napoli | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 26 Jul 2022 | Napoli | Bari | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Reggina | Napoli | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 31 Jan 2022 | Napoli | Reggina | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 30 Jan 2022 | Pordenone | Napoli | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 10 Aug 2021 | Napoli | Pordenone | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Reggina | Napoli | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 16 Sept 2020 | Napoli | Reggina | Free / loan | €250k |
| 15 Sept 2020 | Bari | Napoli | Free / loan | €250k |
| 15 Jul 2019 | Napoli | Bari | Free / loan | €300k |
| 13 Jul 2019 | V. Francavilla | Napoli | €1.0M | €300k |
| 18 Jul 2017 | Lazio U19 | V. Francavilla | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Lazio U17 | Lazio U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 31 Aug 2014 | Savio | Lazio U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Sapienza Yth. | Savio | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.