Jakub Piotrowski
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jakub Piotrowski's performance-implied value at EUR 1.6M-4.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.8M-4.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.7M-4.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.81x the positional average in the league (1699 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 51
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 55.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.8M vs market €4.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -37% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1699 (50% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.11
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 56 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1442
- Opponent strength
- 1515
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.7M – €4.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -46% (IQR -53% to -42%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1699 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | CM | 33 | 1699 | 50% | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.18 | 1515 | 1442 | 0.93 |
| 2019/20 | SK Beveren | Jupiler Pro League | DM | 5 | 327 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1361 | 1187 | 0.63 |
| 2019/20 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | DM | 6 | 258 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1382 | 1429 | 0.63 |
| 2018/19 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | RM | 3 | 106 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1372 | 1557 | 0.65 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Ludogorets Razgrad | 4 | 374 | 1 | 0 | 1346 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 2 | 114 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Volkswagen Supercup | KRC Genk | 1 | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1301 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | KRC Genk | 4 | 156 | 0 | 2 | 1358 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | KRC Genk | 2 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 1551 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niki Zimling Bundesliga · 2013 | 28 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Mërgim Vojvoda Serie A · 2022 | 27 | €5.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Alfredo Morales Bundesliga · 2019 | 29 | €2.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Georgios Kyriakopoulos Serie A · 2024 | 28 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Yannick Gerhardt Bundesliga · 2024 | 30 | €4.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Morgan Amalfitano Ligue 1 · 2013 | 28 | €4.5M | €5.0M | flat |
| Josip Juranovic Bundesliga · 2024 | 29 | €7.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Leonardo Bittencourt Bundesliga · 2023 | 30 | €2.8M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Aug 2025 | Ludogorets | Udinese | €3.0M | €4.5M |
| 28 Jul 2022 | F. Düsseldorf | Ludogorets | €1.3M | €800k |
| 28 Jul 2020 | Genk | F. Düsseldorf | €500k | €950k |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Waasland-Beveren | Genk | Free / loan | €950k |
| 6 Jan 2020 | Genk | Waasland-Beveren | Free / loan | €1.6M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Pogon Szczecin | Genk | €2.0M | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Stomil Olsztyn | Pogon Szczecin | Free / loan | €150k |
| 22 Feb 2017 | Pogon Szczecin | Stomil Olsztyn | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Pogon II | Pogon Szczecin | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2015 | Wda Swiecie | Pogon II | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Chemik Bydgoszcz | Wda Swiecie | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Chemik U19 | Chemik Bydgoszcz | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.