Aitor Ruibal
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Aitor Ruibal's performance-implied value at EUR 3.6M-9.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.5M-4.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-2.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.76x the positional average in the league (1814 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 15
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 79.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.7M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -51% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1814 (53% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.30
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.30
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 80 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1549
- Opponent strength
- 1482
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €2.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -73% (IQR -81% to -58%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | RW | 27 | 1814 | 53% | 4 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 1482 | 1549 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | RW | 29 | 1303 | 38% | 1 | 3 | 0.28 | 0.36 | 1540 | 1555 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | RW | 18 | 1016 | 30% | 2 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.39 | 1512 | 1520 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | RB | 26 | 1450 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1512 | 1530 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | RW | 19 | 858 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 1569 | 1588 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | RW | 28 | 1604 | 47% | 2 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 1568 | 1557 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | CD Leganés | Laliga | RW | 25 | 1215 | 36% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 1550 | 1482 | 1.16 |
| 2017/18 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | RW | 2 | 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.57 | 1563 | 1522 | 1.11 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Real Betis Balompié | 10 | 584 | 1 | 1 | 1494 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 5 | 305 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 2 | 66 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Real Betis Balompié | 1 | 59 | 1 | 0 | 1274 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Real Betis Balompié | 5 | 368 | 1 | 0 | 1466 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 3 | 200 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Real Betis Balompié | 8 | 630 | 2 | 0 | 1498 |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 2 | 152 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Supercopa | Real Betis Balompié | 1 | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1731 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Real Betis Balompié | 8 | 615 | 0 | 1 | 1578 |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 6 | 336 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 2 | 81 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | CD Leganés | 4 | 386 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Kasaev Premier Liga · 2015 | 29 | €4.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Stanislav Sestak Super Lig · 2013 | 31 | €3.2M | €700k | fell |
| Stephan El Shaarawy Serie A · 2024 | 32 | €5.0M | €2.4M | fell |
| Ádám Szalai Bundesliga · 2019 | 32 | €3.0M | €400k | fell |
| Steve Mounié Ligue 1 · 2024 | 30 | €6.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Erik Lamela Laliga · 2023 | 31 | €9.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Andrea Belotti Serie A · 2024 | 31 | €5.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Roque Santa Cruz Laliga · 2013 | 32 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jul 2020 | CD Leganés | Real Betis | Free / loan | €950k |
| 4 Jul 2019 | Real Betis | CD Leganés | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Betis Deportivo | Real Betis | Unknown | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | R. Majadahonda | Betis Deportivo | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 13 Jul 2018 | Betis Deportivo | R. Majadahonda | Free / loan | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | FC Cartagena | Betis Deportivo | Free / loan | €300k |
| 10 May 2018 | Betis Deportivo | FC Cartagena | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jan 2016 | CE L'Hospitalet | Betis B | €20k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Cornellà U19 | CE L'Hospitalet | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | CE Manresa Yout | Cornellà U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.