Ilia Gruev
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ilia Gruev's performance-implied value at EUR 4.9M-16.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.5M-11.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.6M-17.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.73x the positional average in the league (1324 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 90
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 79.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €7.3M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -2% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1324 (39% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.21
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 80 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1521
- Opponent strength
- 1678
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.6M – €17.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -4% (IQR -14% to +65%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1324 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Leeds United | Premier League | DM | 23 | 1324 | 39% | 0 | 3 | 0.20 | 0.22 | 1678 | 1521 | 1.30 |
| 2023/24 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | CM | 1 | 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 1569 | 1459 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | DM | 31 | 1586 | 52% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1541 | 1393 | 1.04 |
| 2020/21 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | DM | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1415 | 1384 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Leeds United | 2 | 124 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Leeds United | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomáš Souček Premier League · 2020 | 25 | €12.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| Bobby De Cordova-Reid Premier League · 2019 | 26 | €10.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Cristian Tello Laliga · 2019 | 28 | €10.0M | €7.5M | fell |
| Stuart Armstrong Premier League · 2020 | 28 | €6.5M | €6.0M | flat |
| Isaac Hayden Premier League · 2019 | 24 | €8.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Jesse Lingard Premier League · 2021 | 29 | €22.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Jacob Murphy Premier League · 2021 | 26 | €4.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Roberto Pereyra Premier League · 2018 | 27 | €10.0M | €9.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Aug 2023 | Werder Bremen | Leeds | €6.5M | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | W. Bremen U19 | Werder Bremen | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | W. Bremen U17 | W. Bremen U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | W. Bremen Yth. | W. Bremen U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | RW Erfurt Yth. | W. Bremen Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.