Cédric Zesiger
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Cédric Zesiger's performance-implied value at EUR 2.0M-5.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.2M-5.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.0M-5.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 26
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 62.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.8M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -38% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1812 (59% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.02
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 63 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1421
- Opponent strength
- 1469
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.0M – €5.0M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 81% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -53% to -23%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | CB | 27 | 1812 | 59% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1469 | 1421 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | CB | 15 | 1227 | 40% | 0 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.13 | 1528 | 1404 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | CB | 7 | 521 | 17% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1573 | 1438 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | CB | 23 | 1635 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1514 | 1427 | 1.01 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 2 | 97 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Wolfsburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Wolfsburg | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Zambrano Bundesliga · 2016 | 27 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Koray Günter Serie A · 2022 | 28 | €5.0M | €850k | fell |
| Fabian Lustenberger Bundesliga · 2014 | 26 | €5.0M | €4.5M | flat |
| Kevin Akpoguma Bundesliga · 2023 | 28 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Ardian Ismajli Serie A · 2024 | 28 | €3.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Steven Taylor Premier League · 2013 | 27 | €5.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Niklas Stark Bundesliga · 2023 | 28 | €5.5M | €4.0M | fell |
| Adama Soumaoro Serie A · 2022 | 30 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Wolfsburg | Augsburg | €4.0M | €7.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Augsburg | Wolfsburg | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 14 Jan 2025 | Wolfsburg | Augsburg | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Young Boys | Wolfsburg | €5.0M | €5.5M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Grasshoppers | Young Boys | €750k | €750k |
| 31 Aug 2016 | Neuchâtel Xamax | Grasshoppers | €200k | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | BEJUNE U18 | Neuchâtel Xamax | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Xamax Youth | BEJUNE U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.