Robert Lewandowski

38 yrs · Striker · Poland
FC Barcelona · Laliga · Foot: right · Height: 186 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
No index
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€7.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€2.6M – €9.7M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€3.2M – €8.8M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€2.2M – €4.6M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€6.5M – €6.2M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€2.6M – €9.7M
Model value (performance-implied)€3.2M – €8.8M
Projected value (24 months)€2.2M – €4.6M
Dashed line: current market value (€7.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Robert Lewandowski's performance-implied value at EUR 3.2M-8.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.6M-9.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.2M-4.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.74x the positional average in the league (1656 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceElite98.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable37.9 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €5.4M vs market €7.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-53% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €90.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1656 (48% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.92
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.38
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
98 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1787
Opponent strength
1453
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€2.2M – €4.6M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 30 pts.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -61% (IQR -68% to -48%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 38: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 1656 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FC BarcelonaLaligaST31165648%1430.920.37145317870.95
2024/25FC BarcelonaLaligaST34268278%2720.970.50150417920.95
2023/24FC BarcelonaLaligaST35275981%1980.880.54148217231.00
2022/23FC BarcelonaLaligaST34285283%2370.950.54149816960.98
2021/22Bayern MunichBundesligaST34295296%3541.190.41149018471.05
2020/21Bayern MunichBundesligaST29246380%4171.750.56150518981.06
2019/20Bayern MunichBundesligaST31276190%3441.240.50151618921.06
2018/19Bayern MunichBundesligaST33295997%2290.940.39149718391.05
2017/18Bayern MunichBundesligaST30216971%2921.290.48148718631.04
2016/17Bayern MunichBundesligaST33277791%3061.170.48150918551.06
2015/16Bayern MunichBundesligaST32265487%3051.190.51150518531.02
2014/15Bayern MunichBundesligaST31248781%1770.870.39151317931.03
2013/14Borussia DortmundBundesligaST33280392%20100.960.53153917511.03
2012/13Borussia DortmundBundesligaST31259485%2471.080.71143717461.11

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueFC Barcelona11623411599
2025/26Copa Del ReyFC Barcelona314100—
2025/26SupercopaFC Barcelona166101761
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueFC Barcelona139841101630
2024/25SupercopaFC Barcelona2163111756
2024/25Copa Del ReyFC Barcelona310030—
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueFC Barcelona9736311637
2023/24SupercopaFC Barcelona2180201625
2023/24Copa Del ReyFC Barcelona312520—
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueFC Barcelona5442501726
2022/23Copa Del ReyFC Barcelona327020—
2022/23SupercopaFC Barcelona2210211706
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueFC Barcelona2180101692
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueBayern Munich108761331652
2021/22Dfb PokalBayern Munich19000—
2021/22Franz Beckenbauer SupercupBayern Munich188201713
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueBayern Munich6514501615
2020/21Uefa Super CupBayern Munich1120011722
2020/21Franz Beckenbauer SupercupBayern Munich183001687
2020/21Dfb PokalBayern Munich14600—
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueBayern Munich108871561653
2019/20Dfb PokalBayern Munich539660—
2019/20Franz Beckenbauer SupercupBayern Munich190001683
2018/19Uefa Champions LeagueBayern Munich8714801662
2018/19Dfb PokalBayern Munich543573—
2018/19Franz Beckenbauer SupercupBayern Munich172301479
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueBayern Munich11955521691
2017/18Dfb PokalBayern Munich654361—
2017/18Franz Beckenbauer SupercupBayern Munich190101705
2016/17Uefa Champions LeagueBayern Munich9794811708

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Edin Dzeko
Serie A · 2023
37€4.0M€1.6Mfell
Luis Suárez
Laliga · 2022
35€8.0M€3.0Mfell
Thomas Müller
Bundesliga · 2023
34€12.0M€6.0Mfell
Arjen Robben
Bundesliga · 2018
34€7.0M€4.0Mfell
Karim Benzema
Laliga · 2023
36€25.0M€7.0Mfell
Papu Gómez
Laliga · 2021
33€9.0M€3.0Mfell
Ángel Di María
Ligue 1 · 2022
34€12.0M€3.0Mfell
Joselu
Laliga · 2024
34€5.0M€5.0Mflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2026BarcelonaWithout ClubUnknown€7.0M
19 Jul 2022Bayern MunichBarcelona€45.0M€45.0M
1 Jul 2014DortmundBayern MunichFree / loan€50.0M
1 Jul 2010Lech PoznanDortmund€4.8M€4.5M
1 Jul 2008Znicz PruszkowLech Poznan€380k€500k
1 Jul 2006Legia IIZnicz PruszkowFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2005Delta WarszawaLegia IIFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jan 2005Varsovia Yth.Delta WarszawaUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.