Alexis Claude-Maurice

28 yrs · Attacking midfielder (also LW) · France
FC Augsburg · Bundesliga · Foot: right · Height: 176 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€15.0M
Updated today
Estimated acquisition
€5.1M – €13.2M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€4.1M – €11.8M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€5.3M – €12.3M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€9.1M – €6.7M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€5.1M – €13.2M
Model value (performance-implied)€4.1M – €11.8M
Projected value (24 months)€5.3M – €12.3M
Dashed line: current market value (€15.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Alexis Claude-Maurice's performance-implied value at EUR 4.1M-11.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.1M-13.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.3M-12.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.14x the positional average in the league (2108 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 57

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceHigh75.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable28.1 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €6.8M vs market €15.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-47% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.94
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €15.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2108 (69% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.38
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.46
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
76 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.94 (rank 3)
Team strength (Elo)
1421
Opponent strength
1488
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€5.3M – €12.3M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -56% to -2%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FC AugsburgBundesligaAM29210869%540.380.46148814210.94
2024/25FC AugsburgBundesligaAM28212569%930.510.51149814040.94
2023/24OGC NiceLigue 1AM1849516%000.000.21143615110.87
2022/23RC LensLigue 1AM2059417%531.210.52141916260.82
2022/23OGC NiceLigue 1AM2632%000.000.37152515190.82
2021/22OGC NiceLigue 1AM102006%020.900.43140514930.86
2020/21OGC NiceLigue 1AM30190856%450.420.44143213980.75
2019/20OGC NiceLigue 1LW22163365%110.110.22142414560.82

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Dfb PokalFC Augsburg11300—
2024/25Dfb PokalFC Augsburg321510—
2022/23Uefa Conference League QualifyingOGC Nice177101522
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueOGC Nice3175101479

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Fredy Guarín
Serie A · 2013
27€18.0M€12.0Mfell
Bryan Ruiz
Premier League · 2013
28€13.0M€5.0Mfell
Senad Lulic
Serie A · 2014
28€10.0M€9.5Mflat
Adem Ljajic
Serie A · 2018
27€13.0M€9.0Mfell
Hernanes
Serie A · 2014
29€22.0M€8.0Mfell
Badou Ndiaye
Super Lig · 2018
28€15.0M€6.8Mfell
Santi Comesaña
Laliga · 2023
27€7.5M€8.0Mflat
Mattia Zaccagni
Serie A · 2021
26€15.0M€30.0Mrose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Aug 2024NiceAugsburgFree / loan€3.5M
30 Jun 2023LensNiceFree / loan€4.5M
31 Aug 2022NiceLensFree / loan€6.0M
29 Aug 2019FC LorientNice€13.0M€7.5M
1 Jul 2016Lorient BFC LorientUnknownData unavailable
21 Dec 2015FC Lorient U19Lorient BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2015FC Lorient U17FC Lorient U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2014US Torcy U17FC Lorient U17Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2013US Torcy Yth.US Torcy U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.