Lovro Majer
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lovro Majer's performance-implied value at EUR 1.8M-4.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.4M-8.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.4M-6.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.05x the positional average in the league (1375 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 8
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 58.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €6.1M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -51% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1375 (45% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.33
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.42
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 59 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1372
- Opponent strength
- 1505
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.4M – €6.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -15% (IQR -38% to +14%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1375 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | AM | 28 | 1375 | 45% | 2 | 3 | 0.33 | 0.42 | 1505 | 1372 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | AM | 9 | 303 | 10% | 2 | 1 | 0.89 | 0.56 | 1509 | 1438 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | AM | 32 | 2119 | 69% | 5 | 5 | 0.42 | 0.38 | 1516 | 1427 | 1.01 |
| 2023/24 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | AM | 1 | 15 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 1305 | 1507 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | AM | 32 | 1664 | 49% | 2 | 6 | 0.43 | 0.30 | 1415 | 1562 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | CM | 29 | 1841 | 54% | 6 | 8 | 0.68 | 0.47 | 1442 | 1581 | 0.86 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Wolfsburg | 1 | 59 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Wolfsburg | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Wolfsburg | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Stade Rennais FC | 8 | 532 | 1 | 1 | 1491 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | GNK Dinamo Zagreb | 8 | 615 | 2 | 3 | 1390 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Sanson Ligue 1 · 2023 | 29 | €6.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Robert Skov Bundesliga · 2023 | 27 | €6.5M | €4.0M | fell |
| Davide Zappacosta Serie A · 2021 | 29 | €8.0M | €7.0M | flat |
| Omar El Kaddouri Serie A · 2017 | 27 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Dennis Praet Serie A · 2022 | 28 | €13.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Gastón Ramírez Premier League · 2017 | 27 | €6.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Paul Lasne Ligue 1 · 2017 | 28 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Miha Zajc Serie A · 2021 | 27 | €3.0M | €6.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Aug 2023 | Stade Rennais | Wolfsburg | €25.0M | €20.0M |
| 26 Aug 2021 | Dinamo Zagreb | Stade Rennais | €12.0M | €13.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | NK Lokomotiva | Dinamo Zagreb | €2.5M | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Lokomotiva U19 | NK Lokomotiva | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Lokomotiva U17 | Lokomotiva U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | NK Trnje Zagreb | Lokomotiva U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 3 Feb 2012 | Dubrava Tk Jgd. | NK Trnje Zagreb | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 13 Aug 2010 | D. Zagreb Yth. | Dubrava Tk Jgd. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.