
Federico Ravaglia
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Federico Ravaglia's performance-implied value at EUR 2.2M-6.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-3.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 70
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 58th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €1.6M vs market €1.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1469 (43% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 58 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1523
- Opponent strength
- 1516
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €898k – €3.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -15% (IQR -48% to +21%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1469 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | GK | 17 | 1469 | 43% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1516 | 1523 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | GK | 12 | 1055 | 31% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1481 | 1559 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | GK | 6 | 536 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1466 | 1579 | 0.98 |
| 2020/21 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | GK | 4 | 360 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1509 | 1380 | 0.90 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 5 | 480 | 0 | 0 | 1597 |
| 2025/26 | Supercoppa Italiana | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1712 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1650 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Reggina Calcio | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergey Pesjakov Premier Liga · 2014 | 26 | €1.5M | €800k | fell |
| Eugenio Lamanna Serie A · 2016 | 27 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Mauro Goicoechea Serie A · 2013 | 25 | €900k | €1.7M | rose |
| Etrit Berisha Serie A · 2014 | 25 | €3.0M | €4.0M | rose |
| Vito Mannone Premier League · 2016 | 28 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Cenk Gönen Super Lig · 2013 | 25 | €2.8M | €2.0M | fell |
| Joel Robles Premier League · 2016 | 26 | €3.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Joris Delle Ligue 1 · 2013 | 23 | €2.0M | €800k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jan 2023 | Reggina | Bologna | Free / loan | €450k |
| 21 Jul 2022 | Bologna | Reggina | Free / loan | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Frosinone | Bologna | Free / loan | €500k |
| 17 Jul 2021 | Bologna | Frosinone | Free / loan | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2020 | AS Gubbio | Bologna | Free / loan | €100k |
| 15 Jul 2019 | Bologna | AS Gubbio | Free / loan | €50k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Südtirol | Bologna | Free / loan | €50k |
| 10 Jul 2018 | Bologna | Südtirol | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Bologna U19 | Bologna | Unknown | €75k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Bologna U17 | Bologna U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Bologna Youth | Bologna U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Progresso Gio. | Bologna Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.