Federico Ravaglia

26 yrs · Goalkeeper · Italy
Bologna Football Club 1909 · Serie A · Foot: right · Height: 196 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€1.8M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€834k – €2.5M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€2.2M – €6.4M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€898k – €3.4M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€325k – €5.6M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€834k – €2.5M
Model value (performance-implied)€2.2M – €6.4M
Projected value (24 months)€898k – €3.4M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.8M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Federico Ravaglia's performance-implied value at EUR 2.2M-6.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-3.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 70

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average58th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral26.6 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €1.6M vs market €1.8M
Expected appreciationNeutral+4% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €2.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1469 (43% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.00
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
58 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1523
Opponent strength
1516
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€898k – €3.4M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -15% (IQR -48% to +21%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1469 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Bologna Football Club 1909Serie AGK17146943%000.000.00151615230.93
2024/25Bologna Football Club 1909Serie AGK12105531%000.000.00148115590.99
2023/24Bologna Football Club 1909Serie AGK653616%000.000.00146615790.98
2020/21Bologna Football Club 1909Serie AGK436011%000.000.00150913800.90

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa LeagueBologna Football Club 19095480001597
2025/26Supercoppa ItalianaBologna Football Club 19092180001712
2025/26Italy CupBologna Football Club 190919000—
2024/25Italy CupBologna Football Club 1909218000—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueBologna Football Club 1909190001650
2023/24Italy CupBologna Football Club 1909221000—
2022/23Italy CupReggina Calcio19000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Sergey Pesjakov
Premier Liga · 2014
26€1.5M€800kfell
Eugenio Lamanna
Serie A · 2016
27€2.0M€1.0Mfell
Mauro Goicoechea
Serie A · 2013
25€900k€1.7Mrose
Etrit Berisha
Serie A · 2014
25€3.0M€4.0Mrose
Vito Mannone
Premier League · 2016
28€2.5M€2.5Mflat
Cenk Gönen
Super Lig · 2013
25€2.8M€2.0Mfell
Joel Robles
Premier League · 2016
26€3.0M€3.5Mflat
Joris Delle
Ligue 1 · 2013
23€2.0M€800kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
13 Jan 2023RegginaBolognaFree / loan€450k
21 Jul 2022BolognaRegginaFree / loan€500k
30 Jun 2022FrosinoneBolognaFree / loan€500k
17 Jul 2021BolognaFrosinoneFree / loan€200k
30 Jun 2020AS GubbioBolognaFree / loan€100k
15 Jul 2019BolognaAS GubbioFree / loan€50k
30 Jun 2019SüdtirolBolognaFree / loan€50k
10 Jul 2018BolognaSüdtirolFree / loan€100k
1 Jul 2017Bologna U19BolognaUnknown€75k
1 Jul 2016Bologna U17Bologna U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2015Bologna YouthBologna U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Progresso Gio.Bologna YouthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Federico Ravaglia · MoneyballAI