Antonino Gallo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Antonino Gallo's performance-implied value at EUR 2.7M-9.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-3.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.1M-4.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 93
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 64.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.4M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3058 (89% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 65 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1352
- Opponent strength
- 1510
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.1M – €4.7M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 78% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -45% to -19%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | US Lecce | Serie A | LB | 37 | 3058 | 89% | 0 | 4 | 0.12 | 0.17 | 1510 | 1352 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | US Lecce | Serie A | LB | 31 | 2615 | 76% | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 1496 | 1351 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | US Lecce | Serie A | LB | 35 | 2502 | 73% | 0 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.16 | 1486 | 1359 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | US Lecce | Serie A | LB | 32 | 2486 | 73% | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 1469 | 1323 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | US Lecce | 2 | 123 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | US Lecce | 2 | 135 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | US Lecce | 2 | 104 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | US Lecce | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giancarlo González Serie A · 2016 | 28 | €3.8M | €1.4M | fell |
| Gaetano Letizia Serie A · 2016 | 26 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Petar Stojanović Serie A · 2022 | 27 | €3.0M | €1.3M | fell |
| Luca Antonelli Serie A · 2013 | 26 | €5.0M | €7.0M | rose |
| Bruno Teles Premier Liga · 2013 | 27 | €2.0M | €1.4M | fell |
| Julien Laporte Ligue 1 · 2022 | 29 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Joakim Nilsson Bundesliga · 2022 | 28 | €3.5M | €3.5M | flat |
| Rasmus Nicolaisen Ligue 1 · 2023 | 26 | €6.0M | €4.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Aug 2020 | V. Francavilla | Lecce | Free / loan | €250k |
| 21 Jan 2020 | Lecce | V. Francavilla | Free / loan | €200k |
| 25 Jul 2019 | Palermo | Lecce | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Palermo U19 | US Palermo | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Palermo U17 | Palermo U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.