Rasmus Nicolaisen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Rasmus Nicolaisen's performance-implied value at EUR 2.1M-5.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.0M-5.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.8M-4.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 19
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 67.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.6M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -45% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2568 (84% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 68 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1442
- Opponent strength
- 1472
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.8M – €4.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 64 pts; relative output down 59% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -53% to -15%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | CB | 32 | 2568 | 84% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 1472 | 1442 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | CB | 7 | 624 | 20% | 0 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 1469 | 1437 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | CB | 33 | 2927 | 96% | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 1471 | 1437 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | CB | 34 | 2996 | 88% | 0 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 1432 | 1347 | 0.82 |
| 2019/20 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | CB | 11 | 629 | 27% | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.05 | 1253 | 1500 | 0.41 |
| 2018/19 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | CB | 13 | 964 | 41% | 4 | 2 | 0.56 | 0.19 | 1278 | 1502 | 0.44 |
| 2017/18 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | CB | 1 | 45 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1381 | 1492 | 0.47 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | FC Toulouse | 8 | 720 | 0 | 0 | 1664 |
| 2023/24 | Trophee Des Champions | FC Toulouse | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1720 |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Portsmouth FC | 3 | 255 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 2 | 162 | 0 | 0 | 1508 |
| 2019/20 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1281 |
| 2018/19 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 26 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 2 | 165 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Facundo Roncaglia Serie A · 2015 | 28 | €3.5M | €5.0M | rose |
| Matteo Darmian Serie A · 2020 | 31 | €6.5M | €5.0M | fell |
| Maxime Le Marchand Ligue 1 · 2018 | 29 | €4.0M | €1.6M | fell |
| Aleksandr Martynovich Premier Liga · 2016 | 29 | €3.0M | €2.4M | fell |
| Unai Núñez Laliga · 2023 | 26 | €6.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Ricardo Rodríguez Serie A · 2022 | 30 | €3.4M | €3.5M | flat |
| Giovanni González Laliga · 2024 | 30 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Frédéric Guilbert Ligue 1 · 2024 | 30 | €4.0M | €800k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug 2021 | Midtjylland | Toulouse | €538k | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Portsmouth | Midtjylland | Free / loan | €600k |
| 23 Sept 2020 | Midtjylland | Portsmouth | Free / loan | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Midtjylland U19 | Midtjylland | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | FCM Youth | Midtjylland U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.