
Nadir Zortea
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nadir Zortea's performance-implied value at EUR 2.9M-8.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.5M-7.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.0M-8.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 36
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 74th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €6.1M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -22% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1811 (53% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.15
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.16
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 74 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1523
- Opponent strength
- 1501
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.0M – €8.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 27 pts; changed club; team strength up (+154 Elo); role change RM -> RB; relative output down 30% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -51% to +22%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | RB | 32 | 1811 | 53% | 0 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.16 | 1501 | 1523 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Cagliari Calcio | Serie A | RM | 35 | 2727 | 80% | 6 | 2 | 0.26 | 0.37 | 1517 | 1368 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Frosinone Calcio | Serie A | RM | 14 | 1260 | 37% | 1 | 5 | 0.43 | 0.55 | 1473 | 1308 | 0.98 |
| 2023/24 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | RM | 5 | 145 | 4% | 1 | 0 | 0.62 | 0.20 | 1380 | 1709 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | US Sassuolo | Serie A | RB | 10 | 655 | 19% | 0 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 1468 | 1420 | 0.94 |
| 2022/23 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | RM | 9 | 216 | 6% | 1 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.18 | 1347 | 1556 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | US Salernitana 1919 | Serie A | RM | 29 | 1404 | 41% | 1 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.33 | 1493 | 1283 | 0.89 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 10 | 757 | 0 | 3 | 1469 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Cagliari Calcio | 2 | 104 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Atalanta BC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1530 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Atalanta BC | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Atalanta BC | 1 | 27 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birger Meling Ligue 1 · 2022 | 28 | €7.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Berat Djimsiti Serie A · 2019 | 26 | €7.5M | €22.0M | rose |
| Antunes Laliga · 2015 | 28 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Álvaro Domínguez Bundesliga · 2014 | 25 | €8.0M | €8.0M | flat |
| Gian Marco Ferrari Serie A · 2020 | 28 | €8.0M | €7.0M | flat |
| Benjamin Stambouli Bundesliga · 2019 | 29 | €10.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Carlos Zambrano Bundesliga · 2015 | 26 | €6.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Marcel Halstenberg Bundesliga · 2018 | 27 | €8.0M | €17.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Aug 2025 | Cagliari | Bologna | €7.5M | €5.0M |
| 17 Jul 2024 | Atalanta | Cagliari | €5.3M | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Frosinone | Atalanta | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 18 Jan 2024 | Atalanta | Frosinone | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Sassuolo | Atalanta | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 31 Jan 2023 | Atalanta | Sassuolo | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Salernitana | Atalanta | Free / loan | €1.4M |
| 19 Jul 2021 | Atalanta | Salernitana | Free / loan | €700k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Cremonese | Atalanta | Free / loan | €700k |
| 30 Jul 2019 | Atalanta | Cremonese | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Atalanta U19 | Atalanta | Unknown | €300k |
| 18 Jan 2017 | Vicenza U19 | Atalanta U19 | Free / loan | €50k |
| 30 Aug 2016 | Atalanta U17 | Vicenza U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Atalanta Youth | Atalanta U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Feltreseprealpi | Atalanta Youth | €2k | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2014 | FC Südtirol - A | Feltreseprealpi | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Feltreseprealpi | FC Südtirol - A | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.