Nadir Zortea

27 yrs · Right-back (also RM) · Italy
Bologna Football Club 1909 · Serie A · Foot: right · Height: 187 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€7.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€3.5M – €7.5M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€2.9M – €8.7M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€3.0M – €8.8M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€4.6M – €5.2M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€3.5M – €7.5M
Model value (performance-implied)€2.9M – €8.7M
Projected value (24 months)€3.0M – €8.8M
Dashed line: current market value (€7.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Nadir Zortea's performance-implied value at EUR 2.9M-8.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.5M-7.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.0M-8.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 36

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average74th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral27 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €6.1M vs market €7.0M
Expected appreciationLow-22% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €7.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1811 (53% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.15
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.16
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
74 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1523
Opponent strength
1501
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€3.0M – €8.8M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 27 pts; changed club; team strength up (+154 Elo); role change RM -> RB; relative output down 30% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -51% to +22%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Bologna Football Club 1909Serie ARB32181153%030.150.16150115230.93
2024/25Cagliari CalcioSerie ARM35272780%620.260.37151713680.99
2023/24Frosinone CalcioSerie ARM14126037%150.430.55147313080.98
2023/24Atalanta BCSerie ARM51454%100.620.20138017090.98
2022/23US SassuoloSerie ARB1065519%010.140.12146814200.94
2022/23Atalanta BCSerie ARM92166%100.420.18134715560.94
2021/22US Salernitana 1919Serie ARM29140441%120.190.33149312830.89

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa LeagueBologna Football Club 190910757031469
2025/26Italy CupBologna Football Club 190919000—
2025/26Italy CupCagliari Calcio19000—
2024/25Italy CupCagliari Calcio210400—
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueAtalanta BC190001530
2023/24Italy CupAtalanta BC1300—
2022/23Italy CupAtalanta BC12700—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Birger Meling
Ligue 1 · 2022
28€7.0M€3.5Mfell
Berat Djimsiti
Serie A · 2019
26€7.5M€22.0Mrose
Antunes
Laliga · 2015
28€6.0M€4.0Mfell
Álvaro Domínguez
Bundesliga · 2014
25€8.0M€8.0Mflat
Gian Marco Ferrari
Serie A · 2020
28€8.0M€7.0Mflat
Benjamin Stambouli
Bundesliga · 2019
29€10.0M€1.5Mfell
Carlos Zambrano
Bundesliga · 2015
26€6.5M€3.0Mfell
Marcel Halstenberg
Bundesliga · 2018
27€8.0M€17.5Mrose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
20 Aug 2025CagliariBologna€7.5M€5.0M
17 Jul 2024AtalantaCagliari€5.3M€3.0M
30 Jun 2024FrosinoneAtalantaFree / loan€3.0M
18 Jan 2024AtalantaFrosinoneFree / loan€2.0M
30 Jun 2023SassuoloAtalantaFree / loan€2.0M
31 Jan 2023AtalantaSassuoloFree / loan€1.8M
30 Jun 2022SalernitanaAtalantaFree / loan€1.4M
19 Jul 2021AtalantaSalernitanaFree / loan€700k
30 Jun 2021CremoneseAtalantaFree / loan€700k
30 Jul 2019AtalantaCremoneseFree / loan€300k
1 Jul 2019Atalanta U19AtalantaUnknown€300k
18 Jan 2017Vicenza U19Atalanta U19Free / loan€50k
30 Aug 2016Atalanta U17Vicenza U19Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2015Atalanta YouthAtalanta U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2014FeltreseprealpiAtalanta Youth€2kData unavailable
30 Jun 2014FC Südtirol - AFeltreseprealpiFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2013FeltreseprealpiFC Südtirol - AFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.