Birger Meling
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Birger Meling's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-1.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 20.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €288k vs market €900k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -51% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 726 (37% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 21 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1359
- Opponent strength
- 1283
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €285k – €695k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -42% (IQR -50% to -23%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 726 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 24 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 60%–139%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 71%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Copenhagen | Superliga | LB | 14 | 726 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1283 | 1359 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | FC Copenhagen | Superliga | LB | 7 | 408 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1228 | 1399 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | FC Copenhagen | Superliga | LB | 13 | 879 | 44% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1298 | 1517 | 0.48 |
| 2023/24 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | LB | 1 | 15 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1305 | 1507 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | LB | 27 | 1199 | 35% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 1441 | 1562 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | LB | 31 | 1826 | 53% | 0 | 4 | 0.20 | 0.16 | 1417 | 1581 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | Nîmes Olympique | Ligue 1 | LB | 26 | 2329 | 68% | 2 | 3 | 0.19 | 0.23 | 1444 | 1306 | 0.75 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Copenhagen | 5 | 282 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | FC Copenhagen | 4 | 252 | 0 | 0 | 1723 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Copenhagen | 3 | 135 | 0 | 0 | 1350 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Copenhagen | 4 | 263 | 0 | 0 | 1352 |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Copenhagen | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | FC Copenhagen | 3 | 192 | 0 | 1 | 1692 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Copenhagen | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1556 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Stade Rennais FC | 7 | 445 | 0 | 0 | 1476 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Stade Rennais FC | 2 | 144 | 0 | 0 | 1515 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vasyl Kobin Premier Liga · 2015 | 30 | €800k | €400k | fell |
| Bruno Godeau Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 30 | €600k | €600k | flat |
| Daniel Høegh Superliga · 2022 | 31 | €600k | €300k | fell |
| Aaron Appindangoyé Super Lig · 2023 | 31 | €750k | €800k | flat |
| Sergey Petrov Premier Liga · 2022 | 31 | €1.8M | €500k | fell |
| Djibril Sidibé Super League 1 · 2024 | 32 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Valeriy Bondarenko Premier Liga · 2023 | 29 | €500k | €350k | fell |
| Achilleas Poungouras Super Lig · 2024 | 29 | €800k | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Aug 2023 | Stade Rennais | Copenhagen | €2.0M | €5.0M |
| 20 Jul 2021 | Nîmes Olympique | Stade Rennais | €3.0M | €3.5M |
| 6 Jul 2020 | Rosenborg BK | Nîmes Olympique | €1.0M | €1.2M |
| 8 Feb 2017 | Stabæk | Rosenborg BK | €500k | €1.0M |
| 11 Aug 2014 | Boro U21 | Stabæk | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 2 Aug 2013 | Viking FK Youth | Boro U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.