Filip Ugrinic
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Filip Ugrinic's performance-implied value at EUR 1.9M-5.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.8M-6.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.6M-6.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.03x the positional average in the league (1507 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 36
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 58th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €4.7M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1507 (44% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.18
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.22
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 58 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 19)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1497
- Opponent strength
- 1504
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.6M – €6.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -25% (IQR -50% to -7%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1507 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Valencia CF | Laliga | CM | 27 | 1507 | 44% | 0 | 3 | 0.18 | 0.22 | 1504 | 1496 | 0.95 |
| 2019/20 | FC Emmen | Eredivisie | CM | 13 | 600 | 26% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1359 | 1285 | 0.62 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 3 | 192 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | BSC Young Boys | 7 | 598 | 0 | 1 | 1637 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | BSC Young Boys | 2 | 170 | 1 | 1 | 1594 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Manuel Jurado Premier Liga · 2013 | 27 | €6.0M | €7.0M | flat |
| Adrian Mierzejewski Super Lig · 2013 | 27 | €5.5M | €5.0M | flat |
| Dominik Kohr Bundesliga · 2021 | 27 | €6.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Urby Emanuelson Serie A · 2013 | 27 | €8.8M | €1.3M | fell |
| Marquinho Serie A · 2014 | 28 | €4.5M | €1.4M | fell |
| Valentino Lazaro Serie A · 2023 | 27 | €5.0M | €4.5M | flat |
| Ja-cheol Koo Bundesliga · 2015 | 26 | €4.5M | €4.5M | flat |
| Aurélio Buta Bundesliga · 2023 | 26 | €8.0M | €5.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2025 | Young Boys | Valencia | €4.0M | €7.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | FC Luzern | Young Boys | €2.0M | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2020 | FC Emmen | FC Luzern | Free / loan | €525k |
| 3 Jul 2019 | FC Luzern | FC Emmen | Free / loan | €750k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Luzern U21 | FC Luzern | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jan 2016 | Luzern U18 | Luzern U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Luzern Yth. | Luzern U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 8 Jul 2010 | Kickers Youth | Luzern Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.