Maxence Caqueret
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Maxence Caqueret's performance-implied value at EUR 7.3M-27.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.0M-14.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.6M-13.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.39x the positional average in the league (1488 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 19
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 80.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €11.3M vs market €13.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -34% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1488 (44% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.42
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.30
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 81 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1589
- Opponent strength
- 1487
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.6M – €13.8M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+90 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -10% (IQR -70% to +16%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1488 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Como 1907 | Serie A | CM | 30 | 1488 | 44% | 2 | 5 | 0.42 | 0.30 | 1487 | 1589 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Como 1907 | Serie A | CM | 18 | 1098 | 32% | 2 | 3 | 0.41 | 0.37 | 1483 | 1461 | 0.99 |
| 2024/25 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | CM | 9 | 572 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1462 | 1571 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | CM | 34 | 3026 | 99% | 1 | 3 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 1478 | 1521 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | CM | 36 | 2778 | 81% | 4 | 7 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 1440 | 1549 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | CM | 31 | 2333 | 68% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1425 | 1587 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | CM | 29 | 1762 | 52% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 1436 | 1587 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | CM | 8 | 570 | 23% | 0 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 1403 | 1566 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Como 1907 | 6 | 363 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 4 | 183 | 0 | 0 | 1464 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 8 | 513 | 0 | 1 | 1570 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Lyon | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1824 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pape Gueye Laliga · 2023 | 24 | €10.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Rolando Mandragora Serie A · 2024 | 27 | €8.5M | €9.0M | flat |
| Blerim Dzemaili Serie A · 2014 | 28 | €11.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Urby Emanuelson Serie A · 2013 | 27 | €8.8M | €1.3M | fell |
| Éver Banega Serie A · 2017 | 29 | €16.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Josip Ilicic Serie A · 2016 | 28 | €15.0M | €13.0M | flat |
| Nico Gaitán Liga Portugal · 2013 | 25 | €17.5M | €27.0M | rose |
| Arthur Melo Serie A · 2024 | 28 | €15.0M | €4.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jan 2025 | Lyon | Como | €15.0M | €15.0M |
| 14 Dec 2018 | Olymp. Lyon B | Lyon | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 3 Jul 2017 | Olymp. Lyon U19 | Olymp. Lyon B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Olymp. Lyon U17 | Olymp. Lyon U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Ol. Lyon Yth. | Olymp. Lyon U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.