Pape Gueye

The model rates Pape Gueye's performance-implied value at EUR 9.2M-27.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 25.3M-45.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 19.4M-35.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.14x the positional average in the league (2143 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

2143 (63% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.29

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.25

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

88 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

0.95 (rank 2)

Team strength (Elo)

1544

Opponent strength

1484

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Low

Trajectory

stable

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€19.4M – €35.4M

Trajectory drivers: relative output up 35% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -44% (IQR -46% to -34%).

• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.