Rolando Mandragora
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Rolando Mandragora's performance-implied value at EUR 8.6M-30.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.6M-8.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.1M-8.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.53x the positional average in the league (2438 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 57
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 89.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €5.7M vs market €9.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -32% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2438 (71% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.41
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.34
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 89 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1506
- Opponent strength
- 1497
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.1M – €8.3M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-74 Elo); role change DM -> CM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -48% (IQR -52% to -41%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | CM | 34 | 2438 | 71% | 7 | 4 | 0.41 | 0.34 | 1497 | 1506 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | DM | 29 | 1936 | 57% | 4 | 3 | 0.33 | 0.22 | 1512 | 1580 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | DM | 33 | 1583 | 46% | 3 | 3 | 0.34 | 0.21 | 1479 | 1583 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | DM | 29 | 1954 | 57% | 2 | 4 | 0.28 | 0.21 | 1444 | 1597 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Torino FC | Serie A | DM | 21 | 1320 | 39% | 0 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 1499 | 1423 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Torino FC | Serie A | DM | 17 | 1526 | 45% | 3 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.20 | 1472 | 1373 | 0.90 |
| 2020/21 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | DM | 10 | 393 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1498 | 1387 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | CM | 26 | 2053 | 60% | 0 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.17 | 1427 | 1388 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | CM | 35 | 2922 | 85% | 3 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.19 | 1457 | 1355 | 0.78 |
| 2017/18 | FC Crotone | Serie A | DM | 36 | 3240 | 95% | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 1478 | 1328 | 0.86 |
| 2016/17 | Juventus FC | Serie A | DM | 1 | 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1359 | 1832 | 0.88 |
| 2014/15 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | DM | 5 | 131 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1601 | 1492 | 0.93 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | ACF Fiorentina | 1 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1205 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | ACF Fiorentina | 2 | 119 | 0 | 1 | 1416 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 4 | 267 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | ACF Fiorentina | 2 | 171 | 0 | 0 | 1464 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 4 | 279 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | ACF Fiorentina | 2 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1467 |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Torino FC | 2 | 200 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 2 | 171 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Italy Cup | FC Crotone | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grischa Prömel Bundesliga · 2024 | 29 | €7.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Jonas Hofmann Bundesliga · 2022 | 30 | €13.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Adrien Tamèze Serie A · 2022 | 28 | €10.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Fredy Guarín Serie A · 2015 | 29 | €12.0M | €6.5M | fell |
| Yannick Gerhardt Bundesliga · 2023 | 29 | €6.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Yuto Nagatomo Serie A · 2014 | 28 | €14.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Gökhan Inler Serie A · 2013 | 29 | €14.0M | €7.5M | fell |
| Yohan Cabaye Premier League · 2014 | 28 | €22.0M | €18.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Jul 2022 | Juventus | Fiorentina | €8.2M | €10.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Torino | Juventus | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 1 Feb 2021 | Juventus | Torino | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 31 Jan 2021 | Udinese | Juventus | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 4 Oct 2020 | Juventus | Udinese | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 3 Oct 2020 | Udinese | Juventus | €15.0M | €12.0M |
| 26 Jul 2018 | Juventus | Udinese | €20.0M | €10.0M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Crotone | Juventus | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 5 Aug 2017 | Juventus | Crotone | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2016 | Pescara | Juventus | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 20 Jan 2016 | Juventus | Pescara | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 19 Jan 2016 | Genoa | Juventus | €9.0M | €2.0M |
| 18 Jan 2016 | Pescara | Genoa | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 24 Jul 2015 | Genoa | Pescara | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Genoa CFC Youth | Genoa | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.