
Ethan Hamilton
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ethan Hamilton's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.55x the positional average in the league (2609 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 97
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 10.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €204k vs market €400k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +1% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2609 (88% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.03
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 10 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1121
- Opponent strength
- 1217
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €289k – €519k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -26% (IQR -45% to -23%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 10 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–107%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 80%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dundee FC | Scottish Premiership | DM | 29 | 2609 | 88% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 1217 | 1121 | 0.31 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Dundee FC | 2 | 210 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andriy Ralyuchenko Premier Liga · 2023 | 28 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Oleksandr Demchenko Premier Liga · 2024 | 28 | €600k | €500k | flat |
| Viljormur Davidsen Superliga · 2019 | 28 | €350k | €150k | fell |
| Paul McGowan Scottish Premiership · 2015 | 28 | €550k | €400k | fell |
| Lasha Parunashvili Superliga · 2020 | 27 | €650k | €150k | fell |
| Abdul Osman Scottish Premiership · 2015 | 28 | €300k | €350k | flat |
| Gennadiy Pasich Premier Liga · 2023 | 30 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Artem Gabelok Premier Liga · 2023 | 28 | €500k | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Aug 2025 | Lincoln City | Dundee FC | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Aug 2023 | Accrington | Lincoln City | Unknown | €250k |
| 31 Aug 2021 | Peterborough | Accrington | Unknown | €300k |
| 13 Aug 2020 | Man Utd U23 | Peterborough | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 31 May 2020 | Bolton | Man Utd U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 6 Jan 2020 | Man Utd U23 | Bolton | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 5 Jan 2020 | Southend United | Man Utd U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 16 Aug 2019 | Man Utd U23 | Southend United | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 31 May 2019 | Rochdale | Man Utd U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 11 Jan 2019 | Man Utd U23 | Rochdale | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Man Utd U18 | Man Utd U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Man Utd Youth | Man Utd U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Nov 2014 | Hutchison Vale BC | Man Utd Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.