Ethan Hamilton

27 yrs · Central midfielder (also DM) · Scotland
Dundee FC · Scottish Premiership · Foot: left · Height: 187 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 31 May 2028
Market value
€400k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€102k – €362k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€310k – €977k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€289k – €519k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€51k – €875k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€102k – €362k
Model value (performance-implied)€310k – €977k
Projected value (24 months)€289k – €519k
Dashed line: current market value (€400k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Ethan Hamilton's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.55x the positional average in the league (2609 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 97

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average10.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral27.7 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €204k vs market €400k
Expected appreciationNeutral+1% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.31
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €500k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2609 (88% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.03
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.07
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
10 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.31 (rank 26)
Team strength (Elo)
1121
Opponent strength
1217
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€289k – €519k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -26% (IQR -45% to -23%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
10 (MID)
Relative output kept
77%–107%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
80%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Dundee FCScottish PremiershipDM29260988%100.030.07121711210.31

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Scottish Fa CupDundee FC221010—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Andriy Ralyuchenko
Premier Liga · 2023
28€400k€300kfell
Oleksandr Demchenko
Premier Liga · 2024
28€600k€500kflat
Viljormur Davidsen
Superliga · 2019
28€350k€150kfell
Paul McGowan
Scottish Premiership · 2015
28€550k€400kfell
Lasha Parunashvili
Superliga · 2020
27€650k€150kfell
Abdul Osman
Scottish Premiership · 2015
28€300k€350kflat
Gennadiy Pasich
Premier Liga · 2023
30€400k€300kfell
Artem Gabelok
Premier Liga · 2023
28€500k€300kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
26 Aug 2025Lincoln CityDundee FCUnknown€400k
1 Aug 2023AccringtonLincoln CityUnknown€250k
31 Aug 2021PeterboroughAccringtonUnknown€300k
13 Aug 2020Man Utd U23PeterboroughFree / loanData unavailable
31 May 2020BoltonMan Utd U23Free / loanData unavailable
6 Jan 2020Man Utd U23BoltonFree / loanData unavailable
5 Jan 2020Southend UnitedMan Utd U23Free / loanData unavailable
16 Aug 2019Man Utd U23Southend UnitedFree / loanData unavailable
31 May 2019RochdaleMan Utd U23Free / loanData unavailable
11 Jan 2019Man Utd U23RochdaleFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2017Man Utd U18Man Utd U23UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2015Man Utd YouthMan Utd U18UnknownData unavailable
1 Nov 2014Hutchison Vale BCMan Utd YouthUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Ethan Hamilton · MoneyballAI