Diogo Calila
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Diogo Calila's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 98
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 21.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €203k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -1% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 991 (32% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 21 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1276
- Opponent strength
- 1330
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €323k – €620k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 25 pts; role change RM -> RB.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -5% (IQR -26% to +6%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 991 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CD Santa Clara | Liga Portugal | RB | 23 | 991 | 32% | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 1330 | 1275 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | CD Santa Clara | Liga Portugal | RM | 31 | 1754 | 57% | 1 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.25 | 1343 | 1276 | 0.51 |
| 2022/23 | CD Santa Clara | Liga Portugal | RB | 15 | 642 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1417 | 1208 | 0.68 |
| 2021/22 | B SAD | Liga Portugal | RM | 26 | 1888 | 62% | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.24 | 1381 | 1246 | 0.67 |
| 2020/21 | B SAD | Liga Portugal | RB | 20 | 960 | 31% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.17 | 1396 | 1292 | 0.61 |
| 2019/20 | B SAD | Liga Portugal | RB | 12 | 703 | 23% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1419 | 1243 | 0.59 |
| 2018/19 | B SAD | Liga Portugal | RM | 4 | 69 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 1389 | 1313 | 0.65 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Mozambique | 4 | 228 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | CD Santa Clara | 2 | 138 | 0 | 0 | 1360 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filipe Ferreira Liga Portugal · 2018 | 28 | €700k | €550k | fell |
| Triantafyllos Pasalidis Super League 1 · 2024 | 28 | €500k | €450k | flat |
| Giovanni Gravenbeek Eredivisie · 2014 | 26 | €300k | €150k | fell |
| João Nunes Liga Portugal · 2024 | 29 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Marsoni Sambu Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 28 | €550k | €700k | rose |
| Ali Gadzhibekov Premier Liga · 2017 | 28 | €800k | €800k | flat |
| Kirill Pechenin Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €500k | €1.2M | rose |
| Mateo Barac Premier Liga · 2023 | 29 | €800k | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Aug 2022 | B SAD | Santa Clara | €250k | €400k |
| 15 Jan 2019 | B SAD U23 | B SAD | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 11 Jul 2018 | Paços F. B | B SAD U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Benfica U19 | Paços F. B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Benfica U17 | Benfica U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Benfica U15 | Benfica U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Benfica Yth | Benfica U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Belenenses Yth | Benfica Yth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.