Achraf Hakimi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Achraf Hakimi's performance-implied value at EUR 21.4M-45.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 43.5M-92.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 45.9M-67.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 9
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 97.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €65.6M vs market €80.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -46% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1374 (45% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.26
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 97 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1818
- Opponent strength
- 1443
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €45.9M – €67.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 23 pts; relative output down 60% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -45% (IQR -61% to -8%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1374 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | RB | 18 | 1374 | 45% | 2 | 2 | 0.26 | 0.09 | 1443 | 1817 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | RB | 25 | 2068 | 68% | 4 | 8 | 0.52 | 0.23 | 1456 | 1812 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | RB | 25 | 1930 | 63% | 4 | 5 | 0.42 | 0.21 | 1471 | 1700 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | RM | 28 | 2052 | 60% | 5 | 4 | 0.39 | 0.21 | 1432 | 1672 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | RB | 32 | 2484 | 73% | 4 | 6 | 0.36 | 0.16 | 1394 | 1714 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | Inter Milan | Serie A | RM | 37 | 2670 | 78% | 7 | 10 | 0.57 | 0.27 | 1437 | 1748 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | RM | 33 | 2717 | 89% | 5 | 10 | 0.50 | 0.29 | 1522 | 1700 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | LB | 21 | 1739 | 57% | 2 | 4 | 0.31 | 0.14 | 1511 | 1683 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | Real Madrid | Laliga | RB | 9 | 757 | 22% | 2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.08 | 1492 | 1874 | 1.11 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 12 | 1035 | 1 | 7 | 1700 |
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Morocco | 5 | 446 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Morocco | 3 | 270 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Super Cup | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1564 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 17 | 1540 | 4 | 5 | 1703 |
| 2024/25 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1584 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 11 | 983 | 1 | 1 | 1684 |
| 2023/24 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1397 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 8 | 580 | 0 | 2 | 1690 |
| 2022/23 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1457 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 8 | 718 | 0 | 0 | 1708 |
| 2021/22 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1610 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 5 | 358 | 0 | 1 | 1694 |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 3 | 186 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 710 | 4 | 0 | 1682 |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 131 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1839 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 370 | 0 | 3 | 1689 |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 240 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 5 | 289 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1749 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Pavard Serie A · 2024 | 28 | €50.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Ferland Mendy Laliga · 2022 | 27 | €40.0M | €22.0M | fell |
| Jérôme Boateng Bundesliga · 2016 | 28 | €40.0M | €45.0M | flat |
| David Alaba Bundesliga · 2018 | 26 | €50.0M | €52.0M | flat |
| Matthijs de Ligt Bundesliga · 2024 | 25 | €65.0M | €30.0M | fell |
| Alex Sandro Serie A · 2018 | 27 | €45.0M | €40.0M | flat |
| Oleksandr Zinchenko Premier League · 2024 | 28 | €38.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Marquinhos Ligue 1 · 2024 | 30 | €50.0M | €28.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Jul 2021 | Inter | PSG | €68.0M | €60.0M |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Real Madrid | Inter | €43.0M | €54.0M |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Dortmund | Real Madrid | Free / loan | €54.0M |
| 11 Jul 2018 | Real Madrid | Dortmund | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | RM Castilla | Real Madrid | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Real Madrid U19 | RM Castilla | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Real Madrid U18 | Real Madrid U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.