Cammy Devlin

28 yrs · Central midfielder (also DM) · Australia
Heart of Midlothian FC · Scottish Premiership · Foot: right · Height: 170 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 31 May 2028
Market value
€2.0M
Updated today
Estimated acquisition
€691k – €2.1M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€579k – €2.6M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€669k – €2.4M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.5M – €1.9M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€691k – €2.1M
Model value (performance-implied)€579k – €2.6M
Projected value (24 months)€669k – €2.4M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Cammy Devlin's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-2.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.43x the positional average in the league (2232 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 67

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage37.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable28.1 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €1.3M vs market €2.0M
Expected appreciationLow-25% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.31
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €2.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2232 (75% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.04
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.09
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
38 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.31 (rank 26)
Team strength (Elo)
1332
Opponent strength
1197
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€669k – €2.4M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 18 pts; team strength up (+95 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +1% (IQR -43% to +22%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
10 (MID)
Relative output kept
77%–107%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
80%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Heart of Midlothian FCScottish PremiershipCM25223275%100.040.09119713320.31
2024/25Heart of Midlothian FCScottish PremiershipCM25168557%010.050.10125112370.34
2023/24Heart of Midlothian FCScottish PremiershipDM1999033%100.090.12124413220.34
2022/23Heart of Midlothian FCScottish PremiershipDM25162055%160.390.23130312500.40
2021/22Heart of Midlothian FCScottish PremiershipCM23181061%120.150.19133013550.50

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2024/25Scottish Fa CupHeart of Midlothian FC326600—
2024/25Uefa Europa League QualifyingHeart of Midlothian FC2172001599
2023/24Uefa Conference League QualifyingHeart of Midlothian FC4341201478
2023/24Scottish Fa CupHeart of Midlothian FC215100—
2022/23Uefa Europa League QualifyingHeart of Midlothian FC2174001436
2022/23Scottish Fa CupHeart of Midlothian FC314010—
2021/22Scottish Fa CupHeart of Midlothian FC431800—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Peter Etebo
Super League 1 · 2023
28€1.5M€400kfell
Deniz Türüç
Super Lig · 2021
28€3.1M€2.7Mflat
Damian Szymański
Super League 1 · 2023
28€2.5M€3.5Mrose
Magnus Lekven
Superliga · 2015
27€1.0M€600kfell
Tobias Mölgaard
Superliga · 2023
27€600k€900krose
Juan Munafo
Super League 1 · 2016
28€600k€700kflat
Recep Niyaz
Super Lig · 2022
27€1.5M€750kfell
Dmitriy Baga
Super League 1 · 2017
27€600k€700kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
31 Aug 2021NewcastleHeart of Midl.€36k€400k
1 Jul 2021WellingtonNewcastleFree / loan€400k
4 Jul 2019Sydney FCWellingtonFree / loan€50k
1 Jul 2018Sydney FC IISydney FCUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2017West Sydney IISydney FC IIFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.