
Cammy Devlin
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Cammy Devlin's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-2.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.43x the positional average in the league (2232 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 67
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 37.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.3M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2232 (75% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 38 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1332
- Opponent strength
- 1197
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €669k – €2.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 18 pts; team strength up (+95 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +1% (IQR -43% to +22%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 10 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–107%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 80%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Heart of Midlothian FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 25 | 2232 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 1197 | 1332 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | Heart of Midlothian FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 25 | 1685 | 57% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 1251 | 1237 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | Heart of Midlothian FC | Scottish Premiership | DM | 19 | 990 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 1244 | 1322 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Heart of Midlothian FC | Scottish Premiership | DM | 25 | 1620 | 55% | 1 | 6 | 0.39 | 0.23 | 1303 | 1250 | 0.40 |
| 2021/22 | Heart of Midlothian FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 23 | 1810 | 61% | 1 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.19 | 1330 | 1355 | 0.50 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | Heart of Midlothian FC | 3 | 266 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Heart of Midlothian FC | 2 | 172 | 0 | 0 | 1599 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Heart of Midlothian FC | 4 | 341 | 2 | 0 | 1478 |
| 2023/24 | Scottish Fa Cup | Heart of Midlothian FC | 2 | 151 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Heart of Midlothian FC | 2 | 174 | 0 | 0 | 1436 |
| 2022/23 | Scottish Fa Cup | Heart of Midlothian FC | 3 | 140 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Scottish Fa Cup | Heart of Midlothian FC | 4 | 318 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Etebo Super League 1 · 2023 | 28 | €1.5M | €400k | fell |
| Deniz Türüç Super Lig · 2021 | 28 | €3.1M | €2.7M | flat |
| Damian Szymański Super League 1 · 2023 | 28 | €2.5M | €3.5M | rose |
| Magnus Lekven Superliga · 2015 | 27 | €1.0M | €600k | fell |
| Tobias Mölgaard Superliga · 2023 | 27 | €600k | €900k | rose |
| Juan Munafo Super League 1 · 2016 | 28 | €600k | €700k | flat |
| Recep Niyaz Super Lig · 2022 | 27 | €1.5M | €750k | fell |
| Dmitriy Baga Super League 1 · 2017 | 27 | €600k | €700k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Aug 2021 | Newcastle | Heart of Midl. | €36k | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Wellington | Newcastle | Free / loan | €400k |
| 4 Jul 2019 | Sydney FC | Wellington | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Sydney FC II | Sydney FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | West Sydney II | Sydney FC II | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.