Marcus Tavernier
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marcus Tavernier's performance-implied value at EUR 24.7M-51.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 11.9M-28.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 13.5M-33.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.02x the positional average in the league (2743 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 66
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 96.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €22.7M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +5% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2743 (80% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.36
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.41
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 97 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1643
- Opponent strength
- 1616
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €13.5M – €33.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 23 pts; team strength up (+60 Elo); role change LW -> AM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -30% (IQR -43% to -3%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | AM | 34 | 2743 | 80% | 7 | 4 | 0.36 | 0.41 | 1616 | 1643 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | LW | 29 | 1940 | 57% | 3 | 6 | 0.42 | 0.45 | 1582 | 1582 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | LM | 30 | 2133 | 62% | 3 | 4 | 0.30 | 0.24 | 1569 | 1496 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | LM | 23 | 1749 | 51% | 5 | 4 | 0.46 | 0.32 | 1551 | 1425 | 1.23 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 49 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | AFC Bournemouth | 2 | 198 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | AFC Bournemouth | 3 | 156 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emiliano Buendía Premier League · 2023 | 27 | €28.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Solly March Premier League · 2023 | 29 | €22.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Pablo Fornals Premier League · 2021 | 25 | €18.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| Steven Nzonzi Laliga · 2017 | 29 | €30.0M | €23.0M | fell |
| Mathias Jensen Premier League · 2023 | 27 | €22.0M | €14.0M | fell |
| Mikel San José Laliga · 2016 | 27 | €10.0M | €9.0M | flat |
| Ander Herrera Laliga · 2014 | 25 | €20.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Joe Willock Premier League · 2023 | 24 | €38.0M | €22.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Aug 2022 | Middlesbrough | Bournemouth | €11.9M | €4.5M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Boro U23 | Middlesbrough | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 31 May 2018 | MK Dons | Boro U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 17 Jan 2018 | Boro U23 | MK Dons | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Boro U18 | Boro U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.