Oliver Olsen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Oliver Olsen's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-2.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-2.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 88
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 18.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.0M vs market €1.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -11% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1465 (74% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 19 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1278
- Opponent strength
- 1281
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €2.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 21 pts; league level up (+45 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -26% (IQR -50% to -5%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1465 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 24 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 60%–139%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 71%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Randers FC | Superliga | RB | 17 | 1465 | 74% | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 1281 | 1278 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | Randers FC | Superliga | RB | 21 | 1890 | 95% | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 1315 | 1276 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | Randers FC | Superliga | RB | 18 | 1204 | 61% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 1312 | 1254 | 0.48 |
| 2018/19 | AC Horsens | Superliga | RB | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 1510 | 1207 | 0.44 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Randers FC | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | Randers FC | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | Randers FC | 2 | 147 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miroslav Bogosavac Premier Liga · 2022 | 26 | €2.5M | €2.3M | flat |
| Zan Zaletel Superliga · 2024 | 25 | €1.8M | €1.0M | fell |
| Nazım Sangaré Super Lig · 2020 | 26 | €1.6M | €1.7M | flat |
| Spyros Risvanis Super League 1 · 2020 | 26 | €725k | €500k | fell |
| Yaya Banana Super League 1 · 2017 | 26 | €750k | €600k | fell |
| Godfrey Oboabona Super Lig · 2017 | 27 | €1.8M | €650k | fell |
| Mike te Wierik Eredivisie · 2017 | 25 | €1.0M | €1.3M | rose |
| Brian Lluy Super League 1 · 2016 | 27 | €1.0M | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Feb 2026 | Randers FC | VfL Bochum | €200k | €1.8M |
| 31 Jul 2023 | Midtjylland | Randers FC | Unknown | €250k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | FC Fredericia | Midtjylland | Free / loan | €250k |
| 29 Jul 2021 | Midtjylland | FC Fredericia | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Midtjylland U19 | Midtjylland | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Feb 2018 | Esbjerg fB U19 | Midtjylland U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Esbjerg Youth | Esbjerg fB U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.