Edson Álvarez
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Edson Álvarez's performance-implied value at EUR 5.0M-11.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 8.1M-15.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.9M-10.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.85x the positional average in the league (768 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | High | 79.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €11.2M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -57% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 768 (25% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 80 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1477
- Opponent strength
- 1264
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.9M – €10.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 27 pts; changed club; league level down (-321 Elo); relative output up 31% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -67% (IQR -78% to -18%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 768 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | DM | 12 | 768 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 1264 | 1477 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | West Ham United | Premier League | DM | 28 | 1782 | 52% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 1573 | 1520 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | West Ham United | Premier League | DM | 31 | 2383 | 70% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 1584 | 1540 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | DM | 31 | 2587 | 85% | 3 | 3 | 0.21 | 0.10 | 1332 | 1593 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | DM | 31 | 2338 | 76% | 5 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.07 | 1334 | 1749 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | DM | 24 | 1552 | 51% | 2 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.07 | 1341 | 1722 | 0.56 |
| 2019/20 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | DM | 12 | 557 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1366 | 1680 | 0.62 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Fenerbahce | 5 | 313 | 0 | 0 | 1534 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Mexico | 3 | 194 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | West Ham United | 1 | 85 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | West Ham United | 7 | 502 | 1 | 1 | 1570 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | West Ham United | 1 | 75 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Ajax Amsterdam | 6 | 533 | 1 | 0 | 1719 |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 4 | 309 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Ajax Amsterdam | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1628 |
| 2022/23 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | Ajax Amsterdam | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1641 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Ajax Amsterdam | 7 | 558 | 0 | 0 | 1620 |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 3 | 227 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Ajax Amsterdam | 6 | 520 | 0 | 0 | 1598 |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 5 | 433 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Ajax Amsterdam | 4 | 124 | 0 | 0 | 1663 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Ajax Amsterdam | 6 | 377 | 1 | 0 | 1633 |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 3 | 261 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Ajax Amsterdam | 1 | 89 | 1 | 0 | 1451 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Ajax Amsterdam | 1 | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1651 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diadié Samassékou Super League 1 · 2023 | 27 | €7.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Reo Hatate Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 27 | €10.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Adem Ljajic Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €6.0M | €500k | fell |
| Miguel Crespo Super Lig · 2023 | 27 | €8.0M | €3.2M | fell |
| Badou Ndiaye Super Lig · 2020 | 30 | €6.8M | €1.8M | fell |
| Chiquinho Super League 1 · 2024 | 29 | €4.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Erick Pulgar Super Lig · 2022 | 28 | €6.5M | €5.0M | fell |
| Miha Zajc Super Lig · 2023 | 29 | €6.0M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Fenerbahçe | West Ham | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 22 Aug 2025 | West Ham | Fenerbahçe | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 10 Aug 2023 | Ajax | West Ham | €38.0M | €35.0M |
| 22 Jul 2019 | América | Ajax | €15.0M | €7.5M |
| 1 Jan 2017 | CF América U20 | América | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | América Premier | CF América U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2015 | CF América U17 | América Coapa | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.