Miguel Crespo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Miguel Crespo's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-1.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.29x the positional average in the league (1104 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 67
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 34.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €631k vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -42% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1104 (36% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.41
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.28
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 34 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1357
- Opponent strength
- 1259
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €628k – €1.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 31 pts; team strength up (+71 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -51% (IQR -60% to -44%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1104 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Basaksehir FK | Super Lig | CM | 19 | 1104 | 36% | 0 | 5 | 0.41 | 0.28 | 1259 | 1357 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Basaksehir FK | Super Lig | CM | 29 | 2162 | 67% | 2 | 6 | 0.33 | 0.24 | 1284 | 1286 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | DM | 10 | 564 | 16% | 0 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.09 | 1352 | 1583 | 0.45 |
| 2023/24 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | CM | 15 | 523 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 1508 | 1401 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | CM | 23 | 1163 | 36% | 3 | 2 | 0.39 | 0.18 | 1284 | 1516 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | CM | 23 | 1674 | 49% | 1 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 1249 | 1422 | 0.42 |
| 2021/22 | GD Estoril Praia | Liga Portugal | CM | 3 | 264 | 9% | 1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.26 | 1314 | 1294 | 0.67 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Basaksehir FK | 6 | 475 | 1 | 1 | 1343 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Fenerbahce | 3 | 147 | 0 | 0 | 1322 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Fenerbahce | 6 | 434 | 0 | 1 | 1514 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Fenerbahce | 4 | 232 | 0 | 0 | 1350 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Fenerbahce | 1 | 57 | 0 | 0 | 1529 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristoffer Olsson Superliga · 2023 | 28 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Peter Zulj Super Lig · 2021 | 28 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Petros Mantalos Super League 1 · 2023 | 32 | €2.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Younès Belhanda Super Lig · 2021 | 31 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Josip Radosevic Superliga · 2024 | 30 | €1.5M | €800k | fell |
| André Simões Super League 1 · 2021 | 32 | €1.5M | €200k | fell |
| Danijel Aleksic Super Lig · 2022 | 31 | €2.2M | €850k | fell |
| Deniz Türüç Super Lig · 2022 | 29 | €2.7M | €1.7M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Aug 2024 | Fenerbahçe | Basaksehir | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Rayo Vallecano | Fenerbahçe | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 31 Jan 2024 | Fenerbahçe | Rayo Vallecano | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 6 Sept 2021 | Estoril | Fenerbahçe | €1.5M | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Braga B | Estoril | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Merelinense | Braga B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Neves FC | Merelinense | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2014 | Feirense U19 | Neves FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Barroselas U19 | Feirense U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.