Adam Gnezda Cerin

The model rates Adam Gnezda Cerin's performance-implied value at EUR 1.4M-5.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.8M-5.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.7M-4.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.89x the positional average in the league (1116 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

1116 (48% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.24

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.19

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

57 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

0.42 (rank 16)

Team strength (Elo)

1465

Opponent strength

1205

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Low

Trajectory

improving

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€1.7M – €4.4M

Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+64 Elo); league level up (+40 Elo); relative output up 48% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -56% to +50%).

• ⚠Limited sample: 1116 league minutes last season.
• ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Historical movers

14 (MID)

Relative output kept

67%–189%

Held a regular role (900+ min)

64%

Confidence

Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.