Dodô
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Dodô's performance-implied value at EUR 9.2M-24.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.5M-12.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.2M-12.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 78
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 86.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €7.3M vs market €16.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -34% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3139 (92% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 87 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1506
- Opponent strength
- 1500
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.2M – €12.9M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-74 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -52% (IQR -69% to -38%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | RB | 36 | 3139 | 92% | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 1500 | 1506 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | RB | 35 | 3119 | 91% | 0 | 6 | 0.17 | 0.14 | 1493 | 1580 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | RB | 9 | 524 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1531 | 1583 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | RB | 33 | 2338 | 68% | 1 | 4 | 0.19 | 0.13 | 1454 | 1597 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier Liga | RB | 14 | 1244 | 77% | 0 | 4 | 0.29 | 0.10 | 1276 | 1568 | 0.45 |
| 2020/21 | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier Liga | RB | 23 | 1988 | 85% | 2 | 7 | 0.41 | 0.18 | 1288 | 1551 | 0.49 |
| 2019/20 | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier Liga | RB | 15 | 1190 | 60% | 1 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.08 | 1316 | 1619 | 0.54 |
| 2018/19 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | RB | 9 | 756 | 25% | 1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.17 | 1368 | 1381 | 0.65 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | ACF Fiorentina | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | 1211 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | ACF Fiorentina | 2 | 128 | 0 | 0 | 1419 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | ACF Fiorentina | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1463 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 1 | 83 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 5 | 442 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | ACF Fiorentina | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1472 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1661 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | 1468 |
| 2021/22 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 31 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1704 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 | 352 | 0 | 0 | 1537 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 5 | 450 | 1 | 2 | 1636 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 5 | 282 | 1 | 2 | 1692 |
| 2019/20 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 67 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robin Koch Bundesliga · 2024 | 28 | €18.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Javi Galán Laliga · 2023 | 29 | €12.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Vedran Corluka Premier Liga · 2015 | 29 | €11.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Jonas Hector Bundesliga · 2017 | 27 | €20.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Germán Pezzella Serie A · 2018 | 27 | €13.0M | €14.5M | flat |
| Salif Sané Bundesliga · 2019 | 29 | €12.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Jannik Vestergaard Bundesliga · 2018 | 26 | €14.0M | €12.0M | flat |
| Nicolas N'Koulou Serie A · 2019 | 29 | €20.0M | €5.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2022 | Shakhtar D. | Fiorentina | €15.4M | €20.0M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Vit. Guimarães | Shakhtar D. | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 29 Jul 2018 | Shakhtar D. | Vit. Guimarães | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 4 Jan 2018 | Coritiba FC | Shakhtar D. | €2.0M | €2.0M |
| 1 Mar 2016 | Coritiba U20 | Coritiba FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.