Robin Koch
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Robin Koch's performance-implied value at EUR 8.0M-15.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.0M-10.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.2M-7.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 12
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 93.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €7.9M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -45% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2835 (93% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.16
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 93 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1445
- Opponent strength
- 1474
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.2M – €7.3M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-128 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -61% (IQR -66% to -33%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | CB | 32 | 2835 | 93% | 3 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.10 | 1474 | 1445 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | CB | 30 | 2589 | 85% | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 1501 | 1574 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | CB | 31 | 2740 | 90% | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 1525 | 1498 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | Leeds United | Premier League | CB | 36 | 3177 | 93% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1567 | 1418 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Leeds United | Premier League | DM | 20 | 1574 | 46% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1585 | 1477 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Leeds United | Premier League | CB | 17 | 1131 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1585 | 1573 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | CB | 32 | 2708 | 88% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 1521 | 1477 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | DM | 24 | 1899 | 62% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 1488 | 1413 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | DM | 26 | 1916 | 63% | 2 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.16 | 1509 | 1415 | 1.04 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 710 | 0 | 0 | 1644 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 2 | 210 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Eintracht Frankfurt | 10 | 900 | 0 | 2 | 1522 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 3 | 246 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 3 | 222 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Eintracht Frankfurt | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1375 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Leeds United | 2 | 166 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Leeds United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 2 | 99 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Kaiserslautern | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristiano Biraghi Serie A · 2022 | 30 | €10.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Germán Pezzella Serie A · 2021 | 30 | €7.5M | €5.0M | fell |
| Joseph Aidoo Laliga · 2023 | 28 | €8.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Alejandro Catena Laliga · 2023 | 29 | €8.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Kenny Lala Ligue 1 · 2020 | 29 | €9.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Francesco Acerbi Serie A · 2017 | 29 | €12.0M | €12.0M | flat |
| Aurélien Chedjou Ligue 1 · 2013 | 28 | €12.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Alfonso Espino Laliga · 2022 | 30 | €6.0M | €2.4M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Leeds | Frankfurt | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Frankfurt | Leeds | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 6 Jul 2023 | Leeds | Frankfurt | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 29 Aug 2020 | Freiburg | Leeds | €13.0M | €17.0M |
| 22 Aug 2017 | 1.FC K'lautern | Freiburg | €3.5M | €800k |
| 30 Sept 2016 | K'lautern II | 1.FC K'lautern | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Eintracht Trier | K'lautern II | Free / loan | €75k |
| 18 Sept 2014 | Eintr. Trier II | Eintracht Trier | Unknown | €25k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Eint. Trier U19 | Eintr. Trier II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Eint. Trier U17 | Eint. Trier U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | E. Trier Yth. | Eint. Trier U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | SV Dörbach Yth. | E. Trier Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2003 | K'lautern Yth. | SV Dörbach Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.