
Dani Fernández
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Dani Fernández's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 79
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 4.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 29.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €356k vs market €700k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -31% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1266 (47% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 4 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1171
- Opponent strength
- 1204
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €306k – €597k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 18 pts; changed club; league level down (-43 Elo); relative output down 71% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -5% (IQR -33% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1266 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 55%–230%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | RB | 11 | 932 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1204 | 1138 | 0.43 |
| 2025/26 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | RM | 6 | 334 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 1282 | 1262 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FC Khimki (-2025) | Premier Liga | RB | 20 | 1751 | 65% | 0 | 4 | 0.21 | 0.29 | 1322 | 1204 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | 4 | 334 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 2 | 167 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FC Khimki (-2025) | 4 | 155 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Igor Yurganov Premier Liga · 2024 | 31 | €700k | €700k | flat |
| David Carmona Super League 1 · 2024 | 27 | €450k | €450k | flat |
| William Edjenguélé Super League 1 · 2016 | 29 | €400k | €275k | fell |
| Denis Kolinger Superliga · 2024 | 30 | €500k | €450k | flat |
| Stefan Velkov Superliga · 2024 | 28 | €500k | €650k | rose |
| Kyriakos Kivrakidis Super League 1 · 2022 | 30 | €350k | €200k | fell |
| Michalis Kyrgias Super League 1 · 2018 | 29 | €400k | €250k | fell |
| Dimosthenis Baxevanidis Super League 1 · 2016 | 28 | €600k | €600k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jan 2026 | Asteras Aktor | KS Samara | Free / loan | €800k |
| 20 Aug 2025 | Khimki | Asteras Aktor | Free / loan | €800k |
| 31 Jul 2024 | Racing | Khimki | Free / loan | €600k |
| 6 Jul 2022 | CD Badajoz | Racing | Free / loan | €400k |
| 10 Aug 2020 | CF Fuenlabrada | CD Badajoz | Free / loan | €200k |
| 24 Jul 2019 | RM Castilla | CF Fuenlabrada | Free / loan | €100k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | CF Fuenlabrada | RM Castilla | Free / loan | €200k |
| 31 Aug 2017 | RM Castilla | CF Fuenlabrada | Free / loan | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Mérida AD | RM Castilla | Free / loan | €300k |
| 4 Aug 2016 | RM Castilla | Mérida AD | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Real Madrid U19 | RM Castilla | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Real Madrid U18 | Real Madrid U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Real Madrid U17 | Real Madrid U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Leganés Youth | Real Madrid U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Getafe CF Youth | Leganés Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.