Dani Fernández

29 yrs · Right-back (also RM) · Spain
A.G.S Asteras Tripolis · Super League 1 · Foot: right · Height: 178 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€700k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€168k – €657k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€304k – €503k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€306k – €597k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€353k – €335k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€168k – €657k
Model value (performance-implied)€304k – €503k
Projected value (24 months)€306k – €597k
Dashed line: current market value (€700k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Dani Fernández's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 79

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average4.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable29.2 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €356k vs market €700k
Expected appreciationVery low-31% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €800k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1266 (47% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.07
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
4 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.42 (rank 16)
Team strength (Elo)
1171
Opponent strength
1204
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€306k – €597k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 18 pts; changed club; league level down (-43 Elo); relative output down 71% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -5% (IQR -33% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1266 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
25 (DEF)
Relative output kept
55%–230%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
68%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26A.G.S Asteras TripolisSuper League 1RB1193240%000.000.08120411380.43
2025/26PFK Krylya Sovetov SamaraPremier LigaRM633412%000.000.19128212620.56
2024/25FC Khimki (-2025)Premier LigaRB20175165%040.210.29132212040.55

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Kypello ElladasA.G.S Asteras Tripolis433400—
2025/26Russian CupPFK Krylya Sovetov Samara216710—
2024/25Russian CupFC Khimki (-2025)415500—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Igor Yurganov
Premier Liga · 2024
31€700k€700kflat
David Carmona
Super League 1 · 2024
27€450k€450kflat
William Edjenguélé
Super League 1 · 2016
29€400k€275kfell
Denis Kolinger
Superliga · 2024
30€500k€450kflat
Stefan Velkov
Superliga · 2024
28€500k€650krose
Kyriakos Kivrakidis
Super League 1 · 2022
30€350k€200kfell
Michalis Kyrgias
Super League 1 · 2018
29€400k€250kfell
Dimosthenis Baxevanidis
Super League 1 · 2016
28€600k€600kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
21 Jan 2026Asteras AktorKS SamaraFree / loan€800k
20 Aug 2025KhimkiAsteras AktorFree / loan€800k
31 Jul 2024RacingKhimkiFree / loan€600k
6 Jul 2022CD BadajozRacingFree / loan€400k
10 Aug 2020CF FuenlabradaCD BadajozFree / loan€200k
24 Jul 2019RM CastillaCF FuenlabradaFree / loan€100k
30 Jun 2018CF FuenlabradaRM CastillaFree / loan€200k
31 Aug 2017RM CastillaCF FuenlabradaFree / loan€200k
30 Jun 2017Mérida ADRM CastillaFree / loan€300k
4 Aug 2016RM CastillaMérida ADFree / loan€150k
1 Jul 2015Real Madrid U19RM CastillaUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2014Real Madrid U18Real Madrid U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2013Real Madrid U17Real Madrid U18UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2012Leganés YouthReal Madrid U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2011Getafe CF YouthLeganés YouthUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.