Elliot Watt
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Elliot Watt's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-3.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 2.01x the positional average in the league (2474 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 94
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 18.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €673k vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2474 (83% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.29
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.25
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 19 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1245
- Opponent strength
- 1223
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €821k – €3.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -28% to +9%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 11 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 10 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–107%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 80%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Motherwell FC | Scottish Premiership | DM | 29 | 2474 | 83% | 5 | 3 | 0.29 | 0.25 | 1223 | 1245 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | St. Johnstone FC | Scottish Premiership | DM | 3 | 192 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1214 | 1081 | 0.34 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Motherwell FC | 1 | 29 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Burton Albion | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Johnstone FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assane Dioussé Super League 1 · 2023 | 26 | €900k | €700k | fell |
| Soner Aydoğdu Super Lig · 2020 | 29 | €1.4M | €1.5M | flat |
| Pavlo Orikhovskyi Premier Liga · 2023 | 27 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Jamie Hamill Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 28 | €700k | €400k | fell |
| André Rømer Superliga · 2019 | 26 | €600k | €700k | flat |
| Haris Hajradinovic Super Lig · 2020 | 26 | €2.4M | €3.3M | rose |
| Paschalis Staikos Super League 1 · 2024 | 28 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| Aleksandre Kobakhidze Premier Liga · 2015 | 28 | €1.2M | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Burton Albion | Motherwell FC | Free / loan | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2025 | St. Johnstone | Burton Albion | Free / loan | €400k |
| 30 Jan 2025 | Burton Albion | St. Johnstone | Free / loan | €450k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Salford | Burton Albion | Free / loan | €325k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Bradford | Salford | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 27 Jul 2020 | Wolves U23 | Bradford | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 31 May 2020 | Carlisle United | Wolves U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Wolves U23 | Carlisle United | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Wolves U18 | Wolves U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | PNE Academy | Wolves U18 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.