Ayumu Seko
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ayumu Seko's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-5.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.7M-6.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.1M-7.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.36x the positional average in the league (2625 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 69
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 51.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €4.0M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2625 (86% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 52 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1361
- Opponent strength
- 1477
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.1M – €7.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -27% to +52%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Le Havre AC | Ligue 1 | DM | 30 | 2625 | 86% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1477 | 1361 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Japan | 2 | 87 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ibrahim Amadou Ligue 1 · 2018 | 25 | €3.5M | €5.5M | rose |
| Tomás Pina Laliga · 2013 | 26 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Elvis Rexhbecaj Bundesliga · 2023 | 26 | €3.5M | €3.5M | flat |
| Walace Serie A · 2023 | 28 | €7.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Édgar Barreto Serie A · 2013 | 29 | €5.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Baptiste Santamaria Ligue 1 · 2019 | 24 | €6.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Danley Jean Jacques Ligue 1 · 2024 | 24 | €2.0M | €3.0M | rose |
| Fran Beltrán Laliga · 2024 | 25 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2025 | Grasshoppers | Le Havre AC | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 18 Jan 2022 | Cerezo Osaka | Grasshoppers | Unknown | €900k |
| 1 Feb 2019 | Cerezo U18 | Cerezo Osaka | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Apr 2016 | Cerezo Jg | Cerezo U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.