Alec Van Hoorenbeeck

27 yrs · Centre-back (also LB, RB) · Belgium
Heracles Almelo · Eredivisie · Foot: left · Height: 187 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€700k
Updated today
Estimated acquisition
€234k – €678k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€542k – €722k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€354k – €698k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€135k – €488k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€234k – €678k
Model value (performance-implied)€542k – €722k
Projected value (24 months)€354k – €698k
Dashed line: current market value (€700k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Alec Van Hoorenbeeck's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 73

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average17th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral27.5 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €457k vs market €700k
Expected appreciationLow-18% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €1.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2156 (71% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.08
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.10
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
17 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.43 (rank 15)
Team strength (Elo)
1060
Opponent strength
1314
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€354k – €698k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 34 pts; changed club; team strength down (-349 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -33% to +6%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
82 (DEF)
Relative output kept
65%–166%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
78%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Heracles AlmeloEredivisieCB24215670%200.080.10131410600.43
2024/25FC Twente EnschedeEredivisieCB20111236%200.160.10130914090.50
2023/24FC Twente EnschedeEredivisieCB1650617%000.000.03139714660.48
2023/24KV MechelenJupiler Pro LeagueCB3452%000.000.10141313670.63
2022/23KV MechelenJupiler Pro LeagueLB26184260%010.050.06128313020.58
2021/22KV MechelenJupiler Pro LeagueLB1398632%010.090.11133213200.49
2019/20KV MechelenJupiler Pro LeagueRB1723%000.000.09129513540.63

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Knvb BekerHeracles Almelo330000—
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueFC Twente Enschede5229001517
2024/25Knvb BekerFC Twente Enschede218010—
2024/25Uefa Champions League QualifyingFC Twente Enschede2166101622
2023/24Volkswagen SupercupKV Mechelen145001497
2023/24Uefa Conference League QualifyingFC Twente Enschede145001544

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Dino Arslanagic
Super Lig · 2022
29€1.0M€600kfell
Antonis Dentakis
Super League 1 · 2022
27€300k€200kfell
Athanasios Papageorgiou
Super League 1 · 2016
29€400k€300kfell
Ali Yaşar
Super Lig · 2024
29€300k€300kflat
Zeki Yavru
Super Lig · 2020
29€325k€650krose
Denis Kolinger
Superliga · 2022
28€400k€500krose
Georgios Saramantas
Super League 1 · 2020
28€325k€250kfell
Savvas Tsabouris
Super League 1 · 2016
30€450k€300kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2026Heracles AlmeloFC TwenteFree / loan€700k
2 Sept 2025FC TwenteHeracles AlmeloFree / loan€800k
1 Jul 2024KV MechelenFC Twente€600k€900k
30 Jun 2024FC TwenteKV MechelenFree / loan€900k
15 Aug 2023KV MechelenFC TwenteFree / loan€900k
30 Jun 2021Helmond SportKV MechelenFree / loan€200k
15 Aug 2020KV MechelenHelmond SportFree / loanData unavailable
30 Jun 2020KSK HeistKV MechelenFree / loanData unavailable
6 Jan 2020KV MechelenKSK HeistFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jan 2019KV Mechelen U21KV MechelenUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2018KV Mechelen U19KV Mechelen U21UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2015KV Mechelen U17KV Mechelen U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2014KV Mechelen YthKV Mechelen U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2013Beerschot YthKV Mechelen YthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.