Rodrigo Becão
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Rodrigo Becão's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-2.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 38
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 33.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.1M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -51% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1121 (37% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 34 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1204
- Opponent strength
- 1260
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €530k – €1.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 18 pts; changed club; team strength down (-298 Elo); relative output up 68% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -61% (IQR -69% to -44%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1121 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kasimpasa | Super Lig | CB | 13 | 1115 | 36% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 1260 | 1203 | 0.40 |
| 2025/26 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | CB | 1 | 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1226 | 1477 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | CB | 11 | 599 | 18% | 1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.05 | 1242 | 1503 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | CB | 16 | 1123 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1231 | 1583 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | CB | 28 | 2487 | 73% | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 1467 | 1421 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | CB | 35 | 3132 | 92% | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 1478 | 1436 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | CB | 35 | 2785 | 81% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 1459 | 1387 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | CB | 29 | 2212 | 65% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 1438 | 1388 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 28 | 2402 | 89% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1405 | 1547 | 0.69 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Fenerbahce | 4 | 287 | 0 | 1 | 1481 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Fenerbahce | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | 1457 |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 1 | 15 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 1 | 24 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | PFK CSKA Moskva | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1667 |
| 2018/19 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Russian Super Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1516 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Deli Super Lig · 2022 | 31 | €1.8M | €200k | fell |
| Teenage Hadebe Super Lig · 2024 | 29 | €2.0M | €900k | fell |
| Vegar Hedenstad Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €800k | €450k | fell |
| Lucas Taylor Premier Liga · 2024 | 29 | €600k | €200k | fell |
| Melli Super League 1 · 2015 | 31 | €600k | €200k | fell |
| Koray Altinay Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €850k | €225k | fell |
| Tayfur Bingöl Super Lig · 2021 | 28 | €850k | €1.7M | rose |
| Volodymyr Polyovyi Premier Liga · 2015 | 30 | €700k | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Kasimpasa | Fenerbahçe | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 15 Jan 2026 | Fenerbahçe | Kasimpasa | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 20 Jul 2023 | Udinese | Fenerbahçe | €8.3M | €10.0M |
| 6 Jul 2019 | EC Bahia | Udinese | €2.9M | €7.0M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | CSKA Moscow | EC Bahia | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | EC Bahia | CSKA Moscow | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jan 2017 | Bahia U20 | EC Bahia | Unknown | €50k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.