Ismaïla Sarr
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ismaïla Sarr's performance-implied value at EUR 26.2M-56.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 24.7M-50.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 15.0M-29.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.07x the positional average in the league (2177 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 1
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 97.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €40.8M vs market €40.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -51% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2177 (64% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.41
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.42
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 97 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1589
- Opponent strength
- 1623
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €15.0M – €29.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 16 pts; role change AM -> RW.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -65% (IQR -70% to -56%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | RW | 28 | 2177 | 64% | 9 | 1 | 0.41 | 0.42 | 1623 | 1589 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Crystal Palace | Premier League | AM | 38 | 2721 | 80% | 8 | 7 | 0.50 | 0.44 | 1568 | 1620 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | RW | 23 | 1447 | 47% | 3 | 4 | 0.44 | 0.39 | 1442 | 1534 | 0.87 |
| 2021/22 | Watford FC | Premier League | RW | 22 | 1865 | 55% | 5 | 2 | 0.34 | 0.49 | 1572 | 1329 | 1.17 |
| 2019/20 | Watford FC | Premier League | RW | 28 | 2029 | 59% | 5 | 6 | 0.49 | 0.62 | 1618 | 1433 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | RW | 35 | 2792 | 82% | 8 | 7 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 1457 | 1488 | 0.82 |
| 2017/18 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | LW | 24 | 1866 | 55% | 5 | 5 | 0.48 | 0.45 | 1442 | 1502 | 0.85 |
| 2016/17 | FC Metz | Ligue 1 | RW | 31 | 1938 | 57% | 5 | 5 | 0.46 | 0.54 | 1416 | 1336 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Senegal | 5 | 269 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Senegal | 3 | 246 | 3 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Crystal Palace | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1251 |
| 2025/26 | Community Shield | Crystal Palace | 1 | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1800 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Crystal Palace | 5 | 396 | 3 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Marseille | 10 | 432 | 2 | 1 | 1549 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Olympique Marseille | 2 | 195 | 0 | 1 | 1438 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Stade Rennais FC | 9 | 734 | 4 | 3 | 1533 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodrigo Laliga · 2020 | 29 | €40.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Willian José Laliga · 2020 | 29 | €24.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Ayoze Pérez Premier League · 2020 | 27 | €24.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Alexandre Lacazette Premier League · 2020 | 29 | €48.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Marko Arnautovic Premier League · 2019 | 30 | €35.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Portu Laliga · 2020 | 28 | €16.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Wilfried Zaha Premier League · 2023 | 31 | €22.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Saïd Benrahma Premier League · 2023 | 28 | €25.0M | €10.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Aug 2024 | Marseille | Crystal Palace | €15.0M | €18.0M |
| 24 Jul 2023 | Watford | Marseille | €13.0M | €20.0M |
| 8 Aug 2019 | Stade Rennais | Watford | €30.0M | €30.0M |
| 26 Jul 2017 | FC Metz | Stade Rennais | €17.0M | €2.5M |
| 13 Jul 2016 | Génération Foot | FC Metz | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.