Keinan Davis
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Keinan Davis's performance-implied value at EUR 5.7M-11.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.1M-13.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.8M-9.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.49x the positional average in the league (2078 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 15
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 69.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €9.3M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -33% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2078 (61% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.61
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.75
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 69 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1442
- Opponent strength
- 1512
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.8M – €9.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 30 pts; relative output up 68% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +20% (IQR -45% to +76%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | ST | 30 | 2078 | 61% | 10 | 4 | 0.61 | 0.75 | 1512 | 1442 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | ST | 23 | 1062 | 31% | 2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.47 | 1508 | 1389 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | ST | 8 | 182 | 5% | 1 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.63 | 1440 | 1420 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Aston Villa | Premier League | ST | 1 | 11 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 1483 | 1520 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Aston Villa | Premier League | ST | 15 | 265 | 8% | 1 | 1 | 0.68 | 0.74 | 1604 | 1517 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Aston Villa | Premier League | ST | 18 | 538 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.61 | 1659 | 1367 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 2 | 91 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 2 | 43 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Nottingham Forest | 4 | 238 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonardo Pavoletti Serie A · 2016 | 28 | €5.0M | €9.0M | rose |
| Alfred Finnbogason Bundesliga · 2018 | 29 | €10.0M | €5.5M | fell |
| Max Gradel Ligue 1 · 2015 | 28 | €6.5M | €7.0M | flat |
| Iago Falque Serie A · 2017 | 27 | €10.0M | €17.5M | rose |
| Serhou Guirassy Bundesliga · 2023 | 27 | €14.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| Vincenzo Grifo Bundesliga · 2019 | 26 | €9.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Admir Mehmedi Bundesliga · 2019 | 28 | €10.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Nils Petersen Bundesliga · 2018 | 30 | €12.0M | €6.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2023 | Aston Villa | Udinese | €2.3M | €3.0M |
| 31 May 2023 | Watford | Aston Villa | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 13 Aug 2022 | Aston Villa | Watford | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 31 May 2022 | Nott'm Forest | Aston Villa | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 1 Jan 2022 | Aston Villa | Nott'm Forest | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Aston Villa U23 | Aston Villa | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Aston Villa U18 | Aston Villa U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 3 Dec 2015 | Biggleswade Town | Aston Villa U18 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Stevenage U18 | Biggleswade Town | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.